We’ve got a nine-game slate, including only five games at 06:40 PM EDT or later. I used the AI Model to look for some underdog value in these later games.
Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Brewers -1.5 (+135)
- Nationals ML (+130)
- Astros ML (+112)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
The AI Model thinks the Milwaukee Brewers will earn a 5.7-3.3 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. Yet, the Brewers are -120 on the moneyline. They’re favorites, but you can get an underdog price on the runline at -1.5 (+135).
Since the model expects a 2.5-run win, taking the Brewers on the run line has value.
It Doesn’t Matter Who Pitches For The Brewers!
The Milwaukee Brewers haven’t announced a starter yet. However, it’s likely Carlos Rodríguez will get the start.
He hasn’t pitched this season. However, he was dreadful last year, giving up a .231 ISO and wOBA of .401 to 57 batters. Still, he’s in line to face a Pittsburgh lineup that has hit a .073 ISO and wOBA of .291. This is the perfect get-right spot and season debut for Rodriguez, who the Brewers are still very high on.
Meanwhile, it’ll be Mike Burrows for the Pirates. He’s also making his season debut after only facing 15 batters last year. He has walked 20% of those 15 batters and allowed a .273 ISO and wOBA of .361. The Brewers don’t have much power, but they’ve struck out way less and walked more.
More traffic on the base paths will allow for clutch hits and a wide margin victory.
The Pick
I’ll back the Brewers on the runline to get that underdog price.
MLB Pick Brewers -1.5 (+135) at Bet365
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Our AI Model thinks the Washington Nationals will lose to the Atlanta Braves, 4.5-4.2. But at +130 on the moneyline, there’s actually value with the Nationals. They’re expected to keep this game very close and are home underdogs at +130. This is a good buy spot.
Keep The Walks Coming!
The Atlanta Braves will roll with AJ Smith-Shawver tonight. He’s a righty who has walked 12.2% of his last 49 righties. He’s also walked 14.3% of righties this season and has only 19.5% of strikeouts against righties.
That said, he’ll probably face more lefties than righties in the lineup. Still, Smith-Shawver has allowed more than 50% of hard contact and 32.1% of fly balls to lefties this season. Hot bats like CJ Abrams and James Wood can take advantage.
Meanwhile, Trevor Williams will give it a go for the Nationals. He’s held his first 206 batters faced to a .133 ISO. He’s also limited walks to 5.8%. Ultimately, he’ll face an Atlanta offense that hasn’t shown much power against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. The projected lineup hit a .129 ISO and wOBA of .338 against righties in the previous month.
The Pick
Williams can limit more power. Take the Nationals at +130.
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+130) at Bet365
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
The AI Model likes Seattle to escape with a 4.0-3.7 win over the Astros. Yet, the Astros are +112 on the moneyline. This is another game that is close to a toss-up. You’re better off backing the Astros at +112 at home.
Neither Offense Has Exploded!
The Seattle Mariners have a lineup that has hit a .183 ISO and wOBa of .327 against righties over the last 30 days. This lineup has also struck out more than 24% of the time and has walked just 8.1% of the time.
They’ll take on Lance McCullers, who has held his last 45 batters to nearly 45% of ground balls and just 17.2% of fly balls. He’s struggled to get strikeouts and has walked a lot of batters. But he’s starting to improve and should show that against this Mariners lineup.
Meanwhile, George Kirby will get the Mariners’ first start of the season. The veteran righty only struck out 21.6% of righties last season and will face an Astros lineup filled with righties.
When you put the ball in play, good things happen.
The Pick
This should be a low-scoring game. But I like Houston’s chances a bit more. It’s not like Kirby will pitch super deep into this game, even if he’s having success.
MLB Pick: Astros ML (+112) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
