There are only three games on today’s MLB slate, including two games at night. Looking over the AI Model, there’s a chance that there are multiple upsets in these two games.
Before heading to the online sportsbooks, I’ll share the AI Model’s projections and my thoughts below.
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, July 31, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
The Cincinnati Reds are expected to beat the Atlanta Braves, 4.7-4.4. However, the Braves are +132 on the moneyline. With a predicted loss of just .3 runs, the Braves at +132 is a really good play at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Give Carlos Carrasco a Chance?
The Atlanta Braves traded for Carlos Carrasco and will now put him right into the rotation.
The veteran righty hasn’t pitched well this season, giving up a 5.91 ERA throughout the year. Still, in his last start on May 4, Carrasco limited the Rays to two runs on five hits in three innings, while giving up just one walk.
Don’t expect Carrasco to dominate. But he’s facing a Reds lineup that has six batters who have hit an ISO of no better than .146 over the last month against righties. He’s not facing a lineup that has destroyed righties.
That should only help Carrasco get through his first start with the Braves.
Meanwhile, Andrew Abbott will get the ball for the Reds. The left-hander has only struck out 19.6% of batters over the last month. While his ISO and wOBA numbers are down, Abbott has induced only 38.9% of ground balls over the last month. He’s also thrown only 89 pitches per start in the previous 30 days and has given up 25% of line drives.
He’s also in line to face a Braves lineup that has collectively hit a .267 ISO and wOBA of .354 against lefties over the last month. There’s so much more pop in the Atlanta order, especially against lefties.
Let’s grab the Braves at +132 and side with the AI Model.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, July 31, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model suggests the Mariners will earn a 3.8-3.1 win over the Rangers tonight.
You can go about this in two different ways. The Rangers are +140 on the moneyline, but projected to lose by .7 runs. That’s about halfway to 1.5. After reviewing the lineups and pitching matchups, the Mariners at -1.5 (+132) looks like the better play.
I’ll explain below.
The Mariners Are Going For It!
The Seattle Mariners just traded for Eugenio Suarez from the Arizona Diamondbacks. It’ll be his second stint with the Mariners.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely he’ll be in the lineup tonight. However, it proves the Marienrs are indeed going for it all. They already traded the Diamondbacks for Josh Naylor earlier last week, and now added an even bigger bat with Suarez.
That said, they’ll take on Kumar Rocker of the Texas Rangers. Rocker is a righty, who has allowed a .417 ISO and wOBA of .374 to his last 40 righties. It would be big time if Suarez can get in the lineup tonight, but that’s very unlikely.
Still, the Mariners have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and other righties who can do damage against Rocker. Plus, Rocker has struck out only 11.4% of lefties over the last month.
On the other hand, George Kirby will get the start for the Mariners. Kirby is a righty who has held his last 99 batters to a .106 ISO and wOBA of .276. He’s also helped limit fly balls and line drives to below 25% and has induced over 52% of ground balls over the last month.
In addition to that, he’s added more than 27% of strikeouts and has walked only 7.1% of batters. He’s been a red-hot pitcher for the Mariners, and that should continue against a Rangers lineup that has performed inconsistently over the last month.
So let’s back the Mariners’ run line at -1.5 (+132) tonight.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
