It’s a Thursday, so the MLB slate is thin. Ultimately, many games will be played in the afternoon, except for two.
I’ll add an argument for the underdogs in tonight’s two games. The Houston Astros will face the Texas Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET, while the Athletics will face the Los Angeles Dodgers at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Can we hit at least one upset tonight to earn profit?
The Picks
- Astros ML (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Dodgers -1.5 (-102) at Bet365
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
The AI Model expects the Astros to defeat the Rangers, 5.1-3.6. Yet, Houston is +108 on the moneyline on the road, in what should be an epic pitching duel.
Brown Is On Pace To Win The Cy Young
The Houston Astros will send out Hunter Brown tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has allowed just a .066 ISO and wOBA of .224 this season. Ultimately, he’s struck out 32% of batters and has induced 48.6% of ground balls.
Brown has also allowed just 21.1% of fly balls and has walked only 7.7% of batters this year.
He’ll battle a Rangers offense that has underperformed this season. The Rangers have hit a .151 ISO and wOBA of .312 against righties over the last 30 days. They’ve also walked only 7.2% of the time.
That’s not going to get the job done against Brown.
Can Lefties Hit Jacob deGrom?
The Rangers are favorites tonight because Jacob deGrom is on the mound. Yet, he hasn’t been nearly as good as Brown. deGrom has allowed a .286 ISO and wOBA of .346 against 98 lefties this year. Those 98 lefties have also hit 41.3% of fly balls and 57.1% of hard contact.
The Astros have added a .346 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days and have combined to hit a .345 BABIP against righties. They’ve added more than 26% of line drives against righties during the previous 30 days, which is why the BABIP is very high.
The AI Model thinks the Astros will win by 1.5 runs against Jacob deGrom and the Rangers. Getting the Astros at +108 MLB odds is an absolute steal.
MLB Pick: Astros ML (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model thinks the Dodgers will dominate the Athletics, 5.2-3.0. Therefore, instead of taking the Athletics at +164, consider backing the Dodgers at -1.5 (-102). That’s an underdog price on the runline!
Ultimately, I’d add a real underdog if there were more than two games tonight. But since we’re working with just two games tonight, I’ll give out the Dodgers at -1.5 (-102). That’s an underdog price for a favorite.
Osvaldo Bido Is Nothing Like Last Year
The Athletics will send out right-handed pitcher Osvaldo Bido.
Last year, Bido held 258 batters to a .094 ISO and wOBA of .266. However, this year, he’s allowed a .227 ISO and wOBA of .371 to his first 186 batters. He’s also struck out only 14.5% of batters this season, compared to 24.4% of strikeouts last year.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle a Dodgers lineup that has hit a .176 ISO and wOBA of .335 against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. The Dodgers have also worked 10.9% of walks against righties and should be able to add some more against Bido, who has walked more than 8.5% of batters this season.
Give Some Credit To Matt Sauer!
The Dodgers will run it back with Matt Sauer tonight. He’s not a notable name, but he’s pitched well for the Dodgers this season. He’s held his first 42 batters to a .025 ISO and wOBA of .216, while inducing 57.6% of grounders.
Sauer has also allowed 12.1% of fly balls and has walked only 2.4% of batters this season. It’s a small sample size, but I trust Sauer way more than Bido heading into this game.
Let’s take the Dodgers at -1.5 at an underdog price of -102.
MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-102) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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