The second round of the NBA playoffs is here, and we have plenty of exciting action to find winning NBA picks. The OddsTrader computer projections are also here to help us make the sharpest wagers available.
Let’s take a look at the computer’s projections to find winning NBA picks. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Knicks vs. Celtics and Nuggets vs. Thunder games!
The Picks
- Miles McBride Under 0.5 3-pointers (+145) at Bet365
- Mikal Bridges Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-105) at Bet365
- Denver +9.5 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Russell Westbrook Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Nikola Jokic Under 50.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-112) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at TD Garden
A classic NBA rivalry resumes when the New York Knicks take on the Boston Celtics in the second round of the Eastern Conference NBA playoffs. There are many exciting angles to approach this game, and the OddsTrader computer has found a way for us to make sharp NBA picks.
Focus on Value Bets
First of all, for this game, the OddsTrader computer thinks that the oddsmakers have got the side and total right. The projected score for the game is Boston winning 110-102. With the line set at +8.5, this only gives us a +3% expected value. There’s a 52% cover probability. That is right where you need to be with the line of (-110), however, doing odd shopping you can find a (-105) at Bet365. This is a very small edge, and the computer has found better edges on the player props.
We are in the same situation with the total. With the projection of 212 points on a line of 213 there’s no expected value when you back under at the (-108) line that you would have to pay. That gives us an expected value of -0.7% to bet the under. Therefore, the computer suggests that you lay off the total as well.
Two Props, One Goal
This doesn’t mean we don’t have a winning wager to place for this game. The OddsTrader computer absolutely loves Miles McBride under 0.5 3-pointers at (+145). The computer only projects him to make 0.292 3-pointers giving us a 75% cover probability with an expected value of +33.9%.
McBride has gone over this number lately, but the computer does not think that he will get the same amount of minutes against the Celtics. With the Knicks shortening their rotation, players like McBride could get squeezed out and this offers us an excellent opportunity to make a winning NBA player prop pick.
The computer also found an edge with Mikal Bridges over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists at (-105). The computer projects him to be at 24.28, which gives us an expected value of + 25.4% and a 77% cover probability. Bridges has been a key second piece to this offense, and we should expect the New York Knicks to use more action to get him involved in the offense. The OddsTrader computer has found another winner. Bet the over for Mikal Bridges Points, Rebounds, and Assists
NBA Pick: Miles McBride Under 0.5 3-pointers (+145) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
NBA Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-105) at Bet365
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 09:30 PM EDT at Paycom Center
Westbrook’s Minutes Are Up
Coming out of their exciting seven game series win over the Los Angeles Clippers, the Denver Nuggets have a quick turnaround when they face the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Right now, the consensus line is +9.5. The OddsTrader computer has projected this game as a 115-107 Oklahoma City Thunder win. That would give us an expected value of +2.1% on a cover probability of 53% to bet Denver +9.5 (-108).
As well as taking the Nuggets to cover the spread, the computer also has some great player prop options as well. First, the controversial Russell Westbrook is a target for his line of 15.5 Points + Rebounds. The OddsTrader computer has him projected at 17.7, giving us an expected value of +17.7% and a 71% cover probability.
With the Michael Porter Jr shoulder injury, Russell Westbrook has been playing more minutes and his production has increased. This is definitely a spot where the game film and the computer projections align. Take Russell Westbrook over 15.5 Points + Rebounds.
Fade the Joker?
Nikola Jokic under 50.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
This is a tough one to bet because we have seen how dominant Nikola Jokic has been. However, he has been racking up the assists and rebounds but because he is constantly double-teamed he has not been scoring as many points. Jokic is making the right play and finding his open teammates. That will lead to decreased statistical production from him.
Our computer projects him at 43.91 Points, Rebounds, and Assists, which gives you an expected value of +15.2% and a cover probability of 68%. Although this is a tough bet to make, he has gone under this number in four of the last five games. Hold your nose and fade one of the best players in the league. Bet Nikola Jokic under 50.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists.
NBA Pick: Denver +9.5 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
NBA Pick: Russell Westbrook Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook
NBA Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 50.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-112) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
