Sunday will determine the rest of the Sweet 16 in the 2026 March Madness tournament. We have our NCAA basketball picks for this Sunday slate, including picks for Kentucky vs. Iowa State and Iowa vs. Florida.
Let’s look at our best picks from top-rated sportsbooks for Sunday’s top matchups.
Will Favorites and Top Seeds Keep Rolling?
For Sunday’s best NCAA basketball picks, we’re still observing a dominant tournament for favorites, especially top seeds. Saturday’s action saw the higher seed go 7-1 SU with only No. 3 Gonzaga losing to No. 11 Texas in an upset.
But top seeds have especially been rolling with No. 1 Michigan defeating No. 9 Saint Louis in a 95-72 final. Duke struggled for the middle portion of the game, but fought back to dominate TCU by a 81-58 final on Saturday. We also saw No. 2 Houston dominate Texas A&M by a 31-point margin.
The 2025 NCAA tournament was only the second time since 1985 where all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. Could this be another year where it happens? We’ll see how Florida and Arizona respond on Sunday as the next No. 1 seeds who are both double-digit favorites.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)
Sunday afternoon’s matchup pits the No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats (22-13) as a 4.5-point underdog against the No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones (28-7). Iowa State won easily in the first round, defeating No. 15 Tennessee State 108-74. The Wildcats survived an 89-84 win over No. 10 Santa Clara.
Defense is certainly underwhelming for the Wildcats as they rank 153rd in the nation in Defensive Rating. They’re 4-9 when they allow 80 points, which is too many losses and too many games doing so. Iowa State is 24-1 when scoring at least 74 points this season.
Kentucky is also winless against the elite teams this season. The Wildcats are 0-7 against teams that have at least a 22.56 SRS according to Sports Reference, and Iowa State’s SRS is 27.07 as they rank 17th in Offensive Rating and 5th in Defensive Rating.
The Cyclones have a strong team that have only lost twice in March to a No. 1 seed (Arizona). This spread is small for them and they should cover it by being too much for Kentucky to keep up with.
Expert Pick: Iowa State -4.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators (-10.5)
For this Big Ten vs. SEC matchup, the No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes (22-12) are a 10.5-point underdog against the defending champs, the No. 1 Florida Gators (27-7). While Florida has overturned much of its championship-winning roster from last year, the team still came out strong in a title defense with a 114-55 drubbing of No. 16 Prairie View A&M. Iowa defeated Clemson, 67-61.
Florida is hot with a 13-1 record over the last 14 games. The offense is one of the best in the country, and the defense is better than the raw numbers suggest because of the faster pace it plays (112th in points per game but 30th in Defensive Rating). Meanwhile, Iowa plays at a slower pace, ranking 203rd in scoring, even if the Offensive Rating is 36th as they rank 26th in FG% and 95th in 3P%.
But Iowa is 0-6 against the strongest teams statistically that they’ve played this year, and the only saving grace is that they lost the top four games by single digits instead of getting blown out. However, Florida has a big advantage in the frontcourt with offensive rebounding, and they’re playing much better now than their season stats suggest because of the slow start.
Look for the championship poise for Florida to shine through again and they’ll rip off another big win here by covering the spread.Â
Expert Pick: Florida -10.5 (-110) at Bovada
OddsTrader Knows College Hoops
For your Sunday college basketball picks, we have some good news and bad news for Iowa basketball fans. Our most anticipated matchup sees the Iowa State Cyclones covering the 4.5-point spread against Kentucky. But we also have Florida covering the 10.5-point spread against the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Timing is critical in sports betting. Make sure you sign up with a top sportsbook before making your favorite college basketball picks on games like Kentucky vs. Iowa State and Iowa vs. Florida.
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