The NFL playoffs move on to the divisional round with four great matchups this weekend, including both No. 1 seeds in action for the first time in two weeks. We saw some wild finishes last week, especially in the NFC.
Let’s sort through the games to find our top football predictions.
NFL Picks Divisional Round At-a-Glance
Our NFL picks for the Divisional Round look at the Bills going to Denver without their wide receivers, the 49ers trying to upset the Seahawks, and the Bears facing Matthew Stafford in what will likely be the coldest game of his career.
But let’s start with Saturday’s first game in Denver.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos (Broncos -1)
Saturday, January 17, 2026 – 04:30 PM ET
The spread for this AFC matchup has been all over the place, with the Bills going from a 1.5-point favorite to a 1-point underdog.
Buffalo defeated Denver in the wild card round last year by a 31-7 final after the Broncos scored on the opening drive and never again. However, this year, the game is in Denver, where it’s usually tough for the visitor to play, and the Bills come in extremely injured at wide receiver.
That puts more pressure on Josh Allen to get it done against a great secondary that he shouldn’t test as much anyway. Get the ball to the tight ends and running backs.
However, Bo Nix is the wild card, as the Broncos usually struggle in close games with him, but they still win. But the Bills have a great pass defense to make up for their run defense issues, and it doesn’t look like Denver has the consistent running game to test them.
That’s why Nix should struggle with the pass defense, and with Buffalo’s lack of explosive weapons, the under 46 points is the best bet in this matchup.
Expert Pick: Denver Broncos/Buffalo Bills Under 46 (-110) at BetOnline
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Saturday, January 17, 2026 – 08:00 PM ET
This NFC West rematch from Weeks 1 and 18 is for all the marbles in Seattle after the teams split the season series.
The 49ers are 9-4 in the postseason under Kyle Shanahan, and they got another road win against the Eagles as a 6-point underdog last week. They’re a full touchdown underdog here as Seattle is well rested, and the 49ers won’t have George Kittle (Achilles).
However, there are some facts here that favor the 49ers at least covering the big spread on the road:
- The Seahawks have been held under 18 points twice all year, and both games were when they scored 13 points against the 49ers.
- Brock Purdy has led four game-winning drives in the playoffs alone, while Sam Darnold imploded in his only playoff start a year ago with the Vikings.
- In 13 playoff games, Kyle Shanahan has either won or had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter in 12 of them; the only big loss was in Philadelphia when Purdy injured his elbow on the opening drive.
- For a 14- win team, the Seahawks have a minus-3 turnover differential and don’t even convert 40% of the time on third downs.
Seattle is the rested, healthier team, but the 49ers are the more experienced team that knows how to play them. We’ll take the 49ers with the points.
Expert Pick: 49ers +7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears (Bears +3.5)
Sunday, January 18, 2026 – 06:30 PM ET
This NFC matchup closes the weekend, and it figures to be one of the coldest games in NFL playoff history, with kickoff temperature around 10 degrees, windy, and negative wind chill with potential for snow.
Not ideal for the pass-heavy Rams, but they can run the ball against a porous run defense in Chicago. However, there are still many reasons to trust the Bears to cover the spread with real upset potential at home:
- Chicago leads the NFL in takeaways and turnover differential, while the Rams have been turning it over more down the stretch.
- The Rams were the No. 1 scoring defense through 11 games, but are No. 27 over the last seven games.
- The Rams have allowed five game-winning drives, while the Bears have won a record seven games after trailing in the final 2:00.
- Ben Johnson is much more aggressive on fourth downs than Sean McVay, a good underdog strategy.
- In playoff games where the temperature is under 15 degrees, the home team has lost by more than 3 points in just 2-of-25 games.
The Bears have the firepower and clutch play to knock out the Rams late, so we’ll take them against the spread.
Expert Pick: Bears +3.5 (-105) at BetOnline
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
For our NFL picks Divisional Round, our most anticipated game is Saturday afternoon with the Bills and Broncos going under 46 points in a defensive struggle.
We also like the 49ers to keep it close with the Seahawks, and we recommend the Bears to cover the spread at home against the Rams to close the weekend.
Timing is critical in sports betting. An injury or some big bets can sway the lines throughout the week, so you’ll want to keep up with the line movement before placing your NFL picks this postseason.Â
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