There were 809 touchdown passes thrown in the 2024 NFL season, the 5th most in a season in NFL history. But there were also 511 rushing touchdowns, the 2nd most in NFL history behind only the COVID season in 2020 when scoring was at an all-time high.
Maybe the 2025 NFL season will see a higher share of scoring plays go to the quarterbacks again after there was a big running back renaissance last year with so many veterans changing teams.
We looked at the quarterback props for passing touchdowns at a top-rated sportsbook like Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) to find our favorite NFL picks right now for the 2025 season.
Picks Summary
- Bryce Young – Over 17.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
- Brock Purdy – Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)
- Jared Goff – Under 28.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
- Justin Herbert – Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
*All odds from Bet365
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Bryce Young (Panthers)
Over/Under 17.5 Passing Touchdowns
This number almost feels criminally low at 17.5 passing touchdowns for Bryce Young, who threw 15 last year despite getting benched early by his rookie coach Dave Canales. But the team let Young finish the season as the starter, and he threw 7 touchdowns in the last 3 games alone.
Some view that as Young turning the corner. Maybe that happened, but this number is basically suggesting he’ll get hurt or prove to be a total bust in 2025. Given the usual breakout time for a quarterback, 2025 is make or break for Young in Carolina. Josh Allen is one of the few quarterbacks who needed a 3rd year as a starter to prove his worth.
No one is saying Young is going to explode like Allen, but the former No. 1 overall pick had the Eagles and Chiefs, the Super Bowl teams, on the ropes last year before he was let down by his defense and Xavier Legette dropping a game-winning touchdown in Philadelphia. If he can hang with those teams, he can hang with anyone.
Plenty of Room for a Breakout
He’s getting Adam Thielen back as a reliable veteran, Legette will hopefully improve in Year 2, and they used their 1st-round pick on Tetairoa McMillan, who was ranked as the best non-Travis Hunter wideout in this draft class and could produce right away.
We’re going to trust Canales to get things moving in the right direction with Young, who could throw for Over 17.5 touchdowns and still leave some doubt if he’s a franchise quarterback or not. Still, this number is so low that I wouldn’t pass it up, as it feels like the breakout potential is very solid here.
NFL Pick: Bryce Young – Over 17.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bet365
Brock Purdy (49ers)
Over/Under 24.5 Passing Touchdowns
Before Week 1, we could see the 49ers make Brock Purdy the highest-paid player in NFL history should they decide to surpass the $60 million per year benchmark set by Dak Prescott in 2024.
Maybe he’ll sign for something just under that, but either way, it’s an unbelievable story for someone who was Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick in the 2022 draft. You can already make the case that Purdy is the most successful Mr. Irrelevant in NFL history.
Still, he has his share of detractors, and they point to last season’s 6-win season as proof that he’s not that good and is just another product of the Kyle Shanahan system. But if you look at the games the 49ers lost last year, Purdy was rarely a big problem. They had trouble holding onto leads and they had terrible injury luck at just about every position, including some problems for Purdy himself.
Purdy Has the Weapons
Purdy threw 31 touchdowns in 2023 before that number dropped to 20 last year. Fittingly, the 2025 line is right between them at 24.5 with the odds slightly favoring the Under. Guess Purdy will just have to prove his critics wrong again.
However, there is a lot to like with him having a bounce-back year if the offense is healthier. Even if you think a healthier Christian McCaffrey means he’ll steal more touchdowns away from Purdy, remember that Purdy still threw 31 touchdowns in 2023 when CMC was at his best.
Last year, Purdy himself led the team with 5 rushing touchdowns, and that’s something that shouldn’t happen again. He also lost Deebo Samuel, so rushing him in from short is no longer an option, which could also help boost Purdy’s numbers.
But with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle coming back, the breakout of Jauan Jennings, and the potential of Ricky Pearsall, Purdy has more than enough weapons to throw 25 touchdowns this year to justify whatever the 49ers decide to do with his contract.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100) at Bet365
Jared Goff (Lions)
Over/Under 28.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jared Goff has thrown 29, 30 and 37 touchdown passes in the last 3 seasons in Detroit, so it may come as a surprise that he’s favored to go Under 28.5 this year for that high-powered offense.
Still, it makes sense when you consider that teams who are scoring juggernauts like the 2024 Lions, a 15-2 team who fell hard in the playoffs, usually always regress the next year. On top of that expected regression, they lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who had the creativity to gift some easy touchdown passes for Goff.
Lions Offense May Shift
Goff is enough of a veteran that losing an OC this late in his career shouldn’t tank him. But if you believe Johnson was really that instrumental in improving the offense, it stands to reason that they will take a step back without him in 2025.
Also, the Lions have that great running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to steal plenty of rushing touchdowns in this offense. Maybe not having Johnson shows up in the red zone where they don’t create enough plays with receivers getting open in tight, confined spaces.
Detroit’s defense also has a chance to get healthier and play better, decreasing the need to play in so many shootouts for Dan Campbell’s bunch. Goff can still have a great season, but we’ll go with the under when it comes to this offense trying to score touchdowns through the air after a career year from Goff.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Under 28.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130) at Bet365
Justin Herbert (Chargers)
Over/Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns
Justin Herbert barely cleared this line last year with 23 passing touchdowns in his 1st season with Jim Harbaugh as his head coach and Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator. But the fact is he still cleared it even with the coaching changes and some injuries early in the year, and it’s not like the weapons around him should be worse in 2025.
Maybe the lower expectations here stem from the team adding Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton to the backfield, thinking they’ll take away a lot of scoring tosses from Herbert. Maybe they do, but Herbert’s backs had a solid 15 rushing touchdowns last year, so it’s nothing he isn’t used to having played with Austin Ekeler in the past. Herbert has passed for at least 23 touchdowns in all 4 seasons where he played at least 15 games.
Bounce-Back Year Incoming
However, think of the weapons for Herbert this year.
He already threw 15 touchdowns last year to Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, and those receivers should still be developing. McConkey was fantastic as a rookie. They also brought back Mike Williams, a tall target, and they drafted Tre Harris in the 2nd round and signed Tyler Conklin for the tight end room.
Again, the weapons should be better, and Herbert should be more comfortable in Year 2 with this offensive coaching staff. But there’s also just the fact that he needs to step up after the worst game of his career in that playoff loss in Houston, where he tossed 4 interceptions after throwing just 3 picks all regular season.
Granted, one was a tipped ball from his tight end, and the last one was with the Chargers down 20 points in the final minutes. But Herbert took a lot of understandable heat for that loss, and as one of the best quarterback talents in the league right now, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be well over 22.5 passing touchdowns this year.
NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
