We have a special treat for this week’s Sunday football bets: three Wild Card games to choose from, a tasty postseason triple-header that just happens to include the reigning Super Bowl champions.
You know the betting public will be turning out en masse now that the playoffs are here, but those NFL lines should be even softer for Sunday’s marquee matchup.
Best Bets for San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
If you look only at the OddsTrader NFL predictions for Sunday’s action, the best bet for Wild Card Sunday is Over 46 (-108) in the nightcap between the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. But the computers are probably being thrown off by all the injuries up and down the L.A. offensive line. So let’s skip that one altogether and focus on the second-largest projected value for Sunday’s NFL betting picks.
Wild Card Sunday Odds (Eagles -5.5)
It’s fair enough to see the Eagles (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) favored at home for Sunday’s Wild Card game. They willingly punted their Week 18 game and a chance at the No. 2 seed in the NFC, resting most of their starters for the postseason. However, the No. 6 Niners (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) had the better record during the regular season, and they outperformed No. 3 Philly by plus-0.08 Expected Points Added per play (as per nfelo) to plus-0.06.
Having said that, the reports we’re studying show early point spread action on the defending champs. Make it the moneyline, though, and the Niners are hauling in some big bets – big, but not necessarily sharp. Under 44.5 is also drawing some action from the wiseguys on the NFL odds board, with wind gusts up to 30 mph on what should otherwise be a pleasant afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field.
Wild Card Sunday Picks (49ers +210)
According to the NFL picks at OddsTrader, you’re getting 8.6% Expected Value with San Francisco +5.5 (-108) at Heritage, on a predicted final of 25-23 for the Eagles. Rounding off the projected scores isn’t ideal when it comes to calculating these EVs; instead of taking them literally, we’re content to use them as flags that suggest the Niners may have some overall betting value for Sunday’s contest.
In this case, we’ll recommend taking the Niners on the moneyline instead of the point spread, and we’ll do it for two reasons: One, to avoid going against the sharp betting patterns on Philly -5.5, and two, because casual fans are more likely these days to bet SU instead of ATS. You might even want to put San Fran +210 with Over 44.5 and the following NFL prop in a same-game parlay, if you’re trying to bet large without getting your action capped.
Expert Pick: 49ers ML (+210) at Bookmaker
49ers’ Christian McCaffrey (Anytime Touchdown -136)
The logic behind that SGP is sound: NFL player props are where you’ll find the biggest profit margins. Casual fans love betting these props – especially when it’s a superstar player going over their posted total, or otherwise doing something successful on offense. Anytime TD Scorer is about as sexy as it gets, and McCaffrey (17 combined TDs in 17 starts) is arguably the biggest star on the Niners.
At press time, this McCaffrey prop is showing a plus-15.2% EV edge at OddsTrader for Sunday’s Wild Card matchup, second only to Niners WR Jauan Jennings (+240) scoring a TD at plus-16.0%. But the confidence level on McCaffrey is much higher; you don’t have to worry as much about variance with this wager, and he might have to carry the ball a bit more often this Sunday if the wind picks up.
Expert Pick: Christian McCaffrey – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-136) at Bovada
Place Your Sunday Football Picks Now
That 49ers-Eagles game has just about everything we need for our Sunday football bets; the Eagles are the overrated defending champions, playing a West Coast team that hasn’t gotten the same level of media coverage, but looks better than Philly on paper despite being the Wild Card. It’s not the only game worth betting this week; check out the other recommended NFL picks on tap, and bet accordingly.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
