Tonight, we’re headed to Game 6 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets. With a win, the Thunder can join the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets could force a Game 7 with a win.
Nikola Jokic added 44 points in Denver’s latest loss. He performed at a high level, but his teammates didn’t give him much help. The entire team scored 105 points, while Jokic contributed 44. The most puzzling piece about the Nuggets is Michael Porter Jr., as he went 1-for-7 from the field in 29 minutes and finished with just two points, while going 0-for-5 from three.
He himself acknowledged that he has to be better. Ultimately, without Jokic and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets would’ve been toast. Nobody else came to play. Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, let’s see if that will change at home in a desperation game against the Thunder.
Picks Summary
- Nuggets +5 (-110)
- Under 216.5 (-110)
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Thursday, May 15, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Ball Arena
I’ve added multiple best bets for tonight’s game using the AI Model.
The Model thinks the Thunder will survive and earn a three-point win, 109-106 on the road. However, the Nuggets are currently +5 at many places. The Nuggets make sense against the spread. Plus, the total is currently at 216.5, but the model believes we’ll get 215 points. The Under is another play to consider in this game.
Finally, Michael Porter Jr. should make more of an impact tonight. His line for points + rebounds + assists is at 15.5, but the AI Model suggests he’ll add nearly 17 points + rebounds + assists. His Over is another top play to consider.
How The Nuggets Should Defend!
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s offense has been one of the best in the NBA Playoffs. They’ve scored 117.5 points per 100 possessions while giving up 10.3% of turnovers.
However, the Thunder have only shot a 52.3% effective field goal percentage, bringing down below 29% of offensive rebounds. The Thunder have benefited from the low turnovers. However, the offense still hasn’t been super efficient. In addition, the Nuggets have limited opponents to 27.6% of offensive rebounds. The Nuggets will look to force some difficult shots and clean up the defensive glass.
You’d also have to expect the Nuggets to keep the fouls lower at home. That would also be beneficial.
Oklahoma City Has Struggled In Two Areas
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the No. 1 defense in the NBA Playoffs, allowing only 103.6 points per 100 possessions. They’ve limited teams to a 48.1% effective field goal percentage and have gained more than 17% of turnovers. However, they have also allowed more than 30% of offensive rebounds and have allowed a 22.9 free-throw rate.
The Thunder will likely keep the Nuggets from shooting at a high rate. They’ll also win the turnover battle. But when the Nuggets finally get shots up, they’ll likely be able to gain more offensive rebounds and second chances.
In addition, the Thunder rank 16th in the NBA Playoffs in free-throw rate. Denver must dominate the offensive glass and stay aggressive to get to the foul line. If the Nuggets do those two things, they’ll stick around and potentially win this game outright.
Should We Trust Michael Porter Jr.’s Word?
Michael Porter Jr. has added at least 16 points + rebounds + assists in 87% of games this year. He’s also hit this line in 73% of his last 15 games head-to-head against the Thunder.
Ultimately, the Thunder have limited small forwards to the lowest points and assists totals in the NBA this season. But this number is super low for a guy who has played more than 32 minutes per game over the last ten games.
Porter Jr. still has four potential assists in Game 5. He’s also added more than nine rebound chances per game over the last ten games. In addition, he’s taken nearly nine field goal attempts per game and is typically a quality three-point shooter.
If the Nuggets are going to win tonight’s game, they’ll need help from other players not named Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray or Aaron Gordon.
The Pick
Consider playing all three of these bets straight or you can even use a same-game parlay for a much bigger payout.
- Nuggets +5 (-110)
- Under 216.5 (-110)
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
