The Minnesota Timberwolves will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first game of the Western Conference Finals tonight.
I’ll break down why these are solid bets for tonight, using odds from top sportsbooks, in my analysis below.
The Picks
- Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Over 215.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, May 20, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Paycom Center
Can OKC Keep Up After a Seven-Game Grind?
The Thunder were always supposed to be here. However, the Thunder took seven hard-fought games in the second round against the Nuggets. The Thunder didn’t get nearly as much rest as the Timberwolves leading up to this series.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have made it into the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. They made some changes in the off-season and are playing their best basketball of the year right now. That should make for some good basketball in the Western Conference Finals.
Meanwhile, our AI Model suggests the Thunder will add a 111-105 win over the Timberwolves in this first game. Since the Timberwolves are +7.5 (-110) via Bet365, the best bet for this game is Minnesota against the spread.
Additionally, the model thinks there will be 216 points, but the line is currently at 215.5 at Bet365. The Over is another play to consider tonight.
The Timberwolves Are Well Rested!
In five games, the Minnesota Timberwolves earned a second-round series win over the Golden State Warriors.
Stephen Curry went down with an injury, and the Timberwolves took advantage. But ultimately, even if Curry wasn’t injured, the T-Wolves would’ve likely won this series. Minnesota was easily the better team and has much more depth.
Plus, this team was in the Western Conference Finals last year, led by Anthony Edwards.
Minnesota won’t get the best looks in this game. They’ll also need to limit turnovers against the Thunder. That said, Minnesota has gained 33.7% of offensive rebounds per game in the playoffs.
They’ll be active on the glass, especially against a Thunder defense that has allowed 30.8% of offensive rebounds per game. Additionally, the Thunder have allowed a 23.7 free-throw rate, which is 17th in the NBA Playoffs.
The Timberwolves need to keep turnovers down, and the offense will score reasonably, even with a poor field goal percentage.
The Thunder Can Do The Same!
The Thunder won’t get easy looks, either. After all, the Timberwolves rank second in the NBA Playoffs in points per 100 possessions on defense.
Still, the Thunder have limited turnovers to 10.1% on offense in the playoffs and have gained 28.4% of offensive rebounds. The Thunder might not add as many offensive rebounds as Minnesota, but the Thunder will likely get to the foul line at a high rate.
Minnesota has allowed a 22.6 free-throw rate, which is 15th in the NBA Playoffs this year.
Both teams should be able to score many points from the foul line. I’d also like to imagine both teams will have a solid number of second chances in this game.
It’s already likely that the Thunder keep turnovers down. Minnesota will have to do the same, but with extra rest and more preparation, I’d expect them to be smarter with the basketball.
After all, two teams with bona fide superstars are looking for their first rings. Anthony Edwards has drawn a lot of comparisons to Michael Jordan, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been in the MVP conversation for a few years now.
The Picks
Therefore, I’ll side with the AI Model and take the Timberwolves at +7.5. I think this game and series will be tight throughout. Additionally, while both teams are terrific defensively, there should be enough opportunities on the glass and foul line where both teams will help push this game over the total.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
NBA Pick: Over 215.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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