The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to even the Western Conference Finals at one with a road matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Thunder earned a convincing 114-88 win over the Timberwolves in Game 1.
However, the day after, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the regular season MVP and had an emotional day. Could that potentially affect the Thunder’s preparedness in Game 2?
Let’s give it a look before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks for tonight’s action. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice.
Picks Summary:
- Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)
- Under 225 (-110)
- Julius Randle Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Paycom Center
The AI Model thinks the Timberwolves will lose 110-104. However, Minnesota is a 7.5-point underdog and would cover in this scenario. In addition, the total is stuck at 215, but the AI Model thinks we’ll get just 214 points. The Under is another play to consider for this game.
Finally, Julius Randle has a points + rebounds + assists line of 32.5. Yet, the AI Model thinks he’ll get closer to 38 points + rebounds + assists. That’s one of the best player props you’ll find on tonight’s board.
Cut The Turnovers T-Wolves!
The Minnesota Timberwolves have the pieces to contend against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The offense has scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions and has added a 53.3% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs. These numbers don’t pop, but they’re good enough.
The issue is turnovers. Minnesota has turned the ball over 16.3% of the time in the playoffs and is facing a Thunder team earning 17.9% of turnovers. These turnovers flip the game over and allow the Thunder to run away with the game. That can’t happen. Minnesota needs to protect the ball better and play slower. In addition, the Timberwolves have gained 33.3% of offensive rebounds per game in the postseason.
They’ll be able to add a lot of second chances with more shots. But if there are more turnovers, there are fewer shots. Minnesota will need to take advantage of second-chance points and the foul line, which are two areas where the Thunder have struggled defensively in the playoffs.
Don’t Disrespect Minnesota’s Defense!
The Thunder are the No. 1 defense in the playoffs. However, the Timberwolves are right behind them and ranked second. Minnesota has limited teams to 108.6 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs and has allowed an effective field goal percentage of 51.8%.
The Timberwolves have also forced 16.6% of turnovers. But the Thunder have also been successful in this area since Oklahoma City has only turned the ball over 10.5% of the time in the playoffs. Ultimately, the Timberwolves should be able to limit the Thunder on the offensive glass and will likely still give up some foul shots.
However, as long as the Timberwolves can limit turnovers on the offensive side of the ball, they’ll be in this game throughout. That said, to limit turnovers, the Timberwolves will need to play slower. That’s why the Under is the next best bet.
Julius Randle Is Playing Strong!
The Timberwolves made the Western Conference Finals last season. However, they were looking for more depth and roster flexibility, so they traded the Knicks for Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle.
It’s paid off. Randle has recorded at least 32 points + rebounds + assists in five consecutive games, including 37 against the Thunder in Game 1 of this series. He has also hit this line in five of his last six games against the Thunder, averaging 37.3 points + rebounds + assists per game, dating back to his time with the Knicks.
Randle looks super comfortable and has shot at least 69% from the field in each of his last two games. He’s also shot above 52% during the previous ten games. Plus, he’s averaged 10.7 potential assists per game in that ten-game span and has earned an average of 13 rebound chances per game in that span.
The Pick
I’m not saying Randle will earn a triple-double, but he’s got potential in all three stat categories against the Thunder. Let’s roll with the box-score stuffer to add at least 32 points + rebounds + assists for the Timberwolves tonight.
- Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)
- Under 225 (-110)
- Julius Randle Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
