WNBA Valkyries vs. Mystics Top Pick for July 31: Expect a Low-Scoring Game

The Last Meeting

These two teams played once this year, on May 21. In that game, the Valkyries won 76-74. Both teams thus combined for 150 points. This result easily makes the “under” look interesting, with sports betting sites having a total of 153 or 154 points.

Indeed, this is not the sort of game where we want to get cute as handicappers. We should expect another “under” tonight. In fact, tonight’s game is going to be even lower-scoring.

Key Absence

When these two teams combined for 150 points, 18 of those points came from Valkyries forward Kayla Thornton.

That 18-point output from her is no anomaly. Thornton averages a point total that approximates her output in that game. She is not a random player: she is Golden State’s leading scorer.

Thornton just underwent season-ending surgery. She was absent, and critically missed, a few days ago when then Valkyries offense suffered its most pathetic performance (of which there have been several) of the season, where they failed to reach 70 points against Connecticut, which has the WNBA’s worst defense.

Golden State lacks scorers who can remotely do what Thornton did in that game and regularly does when healthy.

Sonia Citron’s Let-Down Spot

Bettors who are skeptical about the “under” will insist that Thornton’s defense will also be missed. Thornton is a well-sized player who could provide effective defense at the point-of-attack against other well-sized scorers.

With Thornton and her size gone, the best candidate to succeed for Washington on offense is going to be Sonia Citron, who is 6-1. However, Citron is in a major let-down spot.

Citron is coming off a tremendous outing in which she amassed five three-pointers. She achieved an 83 percent three-point conversion rate. After such a huge performance, she reliably falls back down to Earth.

As is often the case with young players, she will showcase her talent in a given game with an amazing outing, but then she’ll fail to be consistent. It would be typical for her output to decline dramatically tonight.

Washington’s Upcoming Decline

Citron’s let-down tendency is even more marked in her entire team’s offense. When the Mystics scored over 100 points on June 8, they failed to score 60 points in their following game.

Similar to Citron, they’ll occasionally put together a masterful effort from behind the arc — as they did in their last game — and then go back to struggling from deep. They lack shooters who have proven to be good from deep throughout their respective careers.

Matchup Details

Washington typically wants to score inside the arc. On a per-game basis, the Mystics attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.

Without good three-point shooters tonight, they’ll have no other choice.

Golden State, on defense, will only have to worry about protecting its interior. Fortunately for the Valkyries, they thrive in this regard. They allow the fewest field goal makes per game within five feet of the basket.

On offense, the Valkyries are also going to struggle. They attempt the most threes per game and face a Washington team that does the best job of limiting the opponent’s three-point conversion rate.

Takeaway

Golden State’s defense will be eminently comfortable, as it will get to focus on protecting the interior against a Mystics team that won’t challenge it behind the arc.

The Valkyries are best team at protecting the basket, giving their defense the same sort of favorable outlook that Washington’s has against a Golden State offense, now without the injured Thornton, that primarily comprises guards who want to shoot threes.

That said, let’s back the Under 153.5 priced around -110.