The dogs were barking in Week 15 – just like Richard Borghesi predicted. Well, sort of.
Underdogs went 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS last week (2-2 SU and ATS for the home dogs), so it was another successful haul for moneyline bettors. More importantly, we went 3-0 here at OddsTrader with our Borghesi-inspired NFL player props.
The NFL player props Week 16 should have even more betting value for the dogs, so let’s keep shopping for football picks from that side of the aisle.
NFL Picks Week 16 At-a-Glance
As expected, the home dogs we can target for our Week 16 NFL props are getting more points than they did last week. And we do indeed have several situations where the road faves might be mailing it in.
Do they have to travel cross-country to play in lousy weather, maybe even on a short week?
Let’s hope so.
N.Y. Giants’ RB Tyrone Tracy (Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts –125)
Sunday, December 21, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET
It’s been a year to forget for the Giants (2-12 SU, 7-7 ATS), but they’re already pointing toward the future with Jaxson Dart at quarterback. He’s part of the reason Big Blue ranks ninth overall on rushing plays at plus-0.01 Expected Points Added, as per nfelo.
However, so is Tyrone Tracy, who has taken over as lead back with the season-ending injury to Cam Skattebo. Tracy got in 14.5 rushing attempts per game in November, and another 12.5 in December, with No. 2 tailback Devin Singletary getting plenty of reps as well.
Rushing Attempts allows us to bet on Tracy’s volume for Sunday’s contest without worrying about his production level against Minnesota (6-8 SU and ATS). They already rank No. 18 against the run at minus-0.02 EPA per play on the season, so Tracy might have an easy day at the office now that the Vikings have been officially eliminated from the playoffs.
Kansas City’s QB Gardner Minshew (Under 20.5 Pass Completions –122)
Sunday, December 21, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET
Okay, we’re betting the dark side again with the Under, but this Gardner Minshew prop still fits the template; the value here is with the Titans (2-12 SU, 6-8 ATS) and very much not with Kansas City (6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS), who are both eliminated from the postseason and without QB Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL).
Minshew (20.3 completions per game last year in Las Vegas) has been a quality backup in the past, but he’ll be playing behind a tattered offensive line for Sunday’s matchup, giving us a projected 10.2% edge for our football props according to OddsTrader.
Miami’s QB Quinn Ewers (Over 168.5 Passing Yards –114)
Sunday, December 21, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET
Forget about making projections for this early Sunday tilt.
The Dolphins (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS) have pulled the plug on QB Tua Tagovailoa, giving Quinn Ewers his first NFL start against the Bengals (4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS), who were officially eliminated last week.
Ewers slid all the way to the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft after a record-setting 2024 with the Texas Longhorns; he’ll face a Cincinnati defense that ranks second-last in the NFL at plus-0.23 EPA per play.
The weather’s beautiful in Miami Gardens, so the Bengals won’t be optimally grumpy for our NFL player props, but these conditions should also help our Ewers prop get to the pay window.
Place Your NFL Bets Now!
The reports we’re looking at show sharp action on both the Giants (+3) and Titans (+3.5) – but also on the Bengals, enough to move them from –1.5 to as high as –5 at press time.
If you want to disguise the sharpness of your NFL picks, Week 16 is giving us a golden opportunity to parlay that Ewers bet with the Dolphins moneyline and the Over; keep a close eye on the NFL player props here at OddsTrader, time your bets accordingly, and we’ll see you on the gridiron.
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