The NFL has become sharper than ever when it comes to sides and totals. Many bettors have turned to player props as a way to make their Sundays profitable.
Understanding players’ recent performance as well as their upcoming matchups is a huge part of making profitable wagers on player props. A player on a hot streak can be facing a bad matchup and vice versa; sometimes, a player has a defense that is tailor-made for his breakout game.
With that in mind, let’s find the best values on the board for NFL player props in Week 3.
Justin Jefferson: Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 21, 2025 – 01:00 PM EDT
The Minnesota Vikings’ failed experiment with young QB JJ McCarthy has been put on pause. This is great news for star wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
This could be Vikings QB Carson Wentz‘s last shot at becoming an NFL starter. What better way to ingratiate himself with his new teammates than finding the best player on the team early and often?
The Vikings are going against the Cincinnati Bengals, one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Bengals have an above-average pass rush, yet they cannot cover if the opposing offensive line is able to hold on and give their QB time.
Wentz is mobile enough to move in the pocket to make plays, and he knows to target his best receiver. Expect Jefferson to get plenty of targets, plenty of catches, and to go over this number.
Caleb Williams: Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 21, 2025 – 04:25 PM EDT
The hopes were high for the Bears’ offense after adding new head coach Ben Johnson, who is one of the most creative play-callers in the league. So far, the team has sputtered, leading to plenty of criticism for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.
Fortunately, the Dallas defense is a recipe for success for any player mired in a slump. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards with three touchdowns against them last week.
The Bears will be back at home, and the offense actually improved in Week 2. That improvement was overshadowed by a defense that gave up 52 points. We don’t need to worry about the Bears’ defense for this bet; we just need Caleb to go off.
In fact, the Bears’ weak defense makes it more likely for them to throw the ball more often. Caleb Williams will finally live up to his potential. Take Caleb Williams to go over on his passing yards.
C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes Thrown (+120) at BetMGM
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 21, 2025 – 01:00 PM EDT
The Texans have looked terrible in their first two games, but they have faced two very tough defenses, the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
However, the Texans have a more favorable matchup against their division rival, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars’ main rush comes from the edges, where the Texans have had more solid performances.
C.J. Stroud is not as bad as he looked in the first two games.
The Texans have a new offensive coordinator, and the team is struggling. Injuries on the offensive line have forced them to change players’ positions on game days. Still, the Texans are a solid team that will fix these mistakes.
C.J. Stroud is an excellent quarterback, and he will look much better against a below-average unit. Once again, we’re targeting a weak defense and taking C.J. Stroud at plus money to throw two passing touchdowns.
Log On and Place These Bets Now
The player prop market can be a volatile market because small amounts of money can move the line significantly.
During the week, overs usually go up as bettors are more excited to watch their favorite players exceed expectations rather than fall short. As a general rule of thumb, you bet overs early and unders late.
Since we have three overs in this article, I would log on to any reputable sportsbook and place this bet now to make sure you get the same value that I have outlined in my reasoning for these NFL player props in Week 3.
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