Get ready for the 2024 Valspar Championship from March 21 to March 24. Here are our top picks for the anticipated event, with odds from the top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Sam Burns to Win Outright (+1200)
- Taylor Moore to Win Outright (+6600)
- Taylor Moore to Finish Top 20 (+300)
- Matt NeSmith to Win Outright (+11000)
- Matt NeSmith to Finish Top 20 (+450)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
2024 Valspar Championship
March 21 – 24 at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club
The Valspar Championship Cliff Notes
The Valspar Championship keeps the PGA Tour in Florida for the last week of the swing and follows hot on the heels of the Players Championship, one of the hardest weeks of the year where many of this week’s competitors will have endured an extremely tough four days.
The players can expect no respite from the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, the Copperhead Course, which measures 7340 yards and is a tough par 70. The course, like last week’s, is a strategic test of skill and patience, requiring guile over power as the list of previous winners illustrates. Names Like Paul Casey, Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, John Senden and Kevin Streelman tell you all you need to know, that accuracy tee-to-green is integral to the golfer’s chances.
With a coastal location, the course can be subject to the natural elements occasionally, but for now, only mild rain and light winds are forecast for Friday.
Can Sam Burns Become the First Three-Time Winner?
This week’s Valspar Championship looks like a great chance for Sam Burns to win a third and record-breaking Valspar Championship in four years.
Sam Burns looks like a solid favorite, having been in superb form so far in 2024. All that is missing from his profile this year is a PGA Tour title, and no finer place than Innisbrook Resort, the Copperhead Course that fits Burns’ eye.
His back-to-back crowns in 2021 and 2022 were both achieved with a winning score of 17-under par, which is better than all other recent winners, so no one plays Innisbrook like the twenty-seven-year-old from Shreveport in Louisiana.
Last week at the Players Championship he was out of contention, which could be perfect for Burns given a third round of 65 hinted that he is still in good form.
Our main bet this week is Sam Burns to win his third Valspar Championship, so take Bet365’s price of +1200.
Golf Pick: Sam Burns to Win Outright (+1200) at Bet365
Can Taylor Do Some Moore Winning at Valspar?
It has been an unusual trend in recent years that defending champions have defended their crown here at Valspar, as Sam Burns and Paul Casey have illustrated.
So, through that trend, we must examine the chances of the Valspar Championship holder, Taylor Moore.
The thirty-year-old from Texas was an impressive winner here last year when outlasting Tommy Fleetwood and Adam Schenk in a final-day battle.
Last week’s effort at the Players Championship was his best effort in 2024 so far, and funnily enough, he completed the Players Championship similarly last year, so that is a strong trend to consider.
Last week’s effort is perfect timing for the defending champion Taylor Moore, and we suggest backing him to defend his Valspar Championship.
Golf Pick: Taylor Moore to Win Outright (+6600) at Bet365
Golf Pick: Taylor Moore to Finish Top 20 (+300) at Bet365
Take NeSmith in the Props Markets
Matt NeSmith caught our eye last week as he looked to be finding his form for the first time in 2024. His Players Championship result of 29th was by far and away his best effort from a lackluster season so far.
The thirty-year-old from South Carolina is known for his strong tee-to-green game, which is perfectly suited to Innisbrook Resort, the Copperhead Course, illustrated by his two efforts here in 2021 and 2022 when he finished 21st and 3rd respectively.
NeSmith is a golfer who has big peaks and troughs, so let’s take the hint from last week’s effort at the Players Championship and support him this week.
The next question is, what are the best markets to bet him in? Well, Matt NeSmith is still a maiden, so we prefer the safer option of the top 20 props market with a solid stake and a more modest investment on his long-shot price in the outright market.
Golf Pick: Matt NeSmith to Win Outright (+11000) at Bet365
Golf Pick: Matt NeSmith to Finish Top 20 (+450) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
