The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the college football action on January 1, so let’s tackle all five games to find our best bets.
- ReliaQuest Bowl between Wisconsin and LSU
- Citrus Bowl between Iowa and Tennessee
- Fiesta Bowl between Oregon and Liberty
- Rose Bowl between Alabama and Michigan
- Sugar Bowl between Texas and Washington
All of my recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- LSU -10 (-110)
- Iowa +8 (-110)
- Oregon -17 (-110)
- Michigan -1 (-110)
- Washington +4 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Wisconsin Badgers vs. LSU Tigers
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Our computers project LSU to win by 13, and I agree.
You should bet on the Tigers, expecting them to cover the spread comfortably.
Key Angle: Wisconsin’s Depleted Offense
Ten points might seem like a big spread, but when you see how depleted the Badgers are offensively and when you wonder how they will manage to score at all, then it will make sense why LSU is such a good play.
The Absences
Most importantly, Wisconsin will miss its star running back, Braelon Allen, who has opted out of this game.
Allen is an All-Big Ten selection who averaged 5.4 YPC and amassed 984 rushing yards this season, which is over three times as many rushing yards as any of his teammates.
But the absences don’t stop with Allen. Wisconsin is slated to miss two other running backs and three wide receivers. Its depth chart features literally one running back and all of four wide receivers.
The Spread
It will be hard to keep pace with LSU’s offense, which ranks number one nationally with 44.1 points per game.
While the Tigers will miss key players of their own, including quarterback Jayden Daniels, they will have more depth at the skill positions and a superior offensive scheme to work in.
When Braelon Allen mustered three yards against Northwestern, Wisconsin scored ten points. His absence altogether will, combined with the other Badgers absences, make it hard for Wisconsin to score ten points.
Asking LSU to reach half its season average is a modest ask.
NCAAF Pick: LSU -10 (-110) at Bet365
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Monday, January 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Camping World Stadium
Our computers project this game to be as tight as a game can be. Accordingly, Iowa plus all of those points is a great bet to make.
Defense Wins Bowl Games
Tennessee has faced its share of strong defenses this season.
I like Iowa to cover the spread because the Volunteers regularly struggled against those strong defenses and because Iowa’s defense is the strongest that they’ll face. Tennessee faced three defenses that rank top-20 nationally: Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama.
The Volunteers scored zero second-half points against Alabama, 13 offensive points against Texas A&M, and ten points against Georgia, which has the strongest defense it has seen.
Iowa’s defense ranks fourth. Tennessee will also face its toughest test without star running back Jaylen Wright.
Iowa’s Offense
In order to cover the spread, Iowa will only need a couple of field goals. The Hawkeyes have reached double digits, though, against every defense they’ve faced except the nation’s two highest-ranked ones, Michigan and Penn State.
Tennessee’s defense is not only far from elite, but its secondary is going to be depleted by absences.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa +8 (-110) at Bet365
Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks
Monday, January 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Our computers project Oregon to win this game by over 30 points, and I agree. You should invest in the Ducks with the expectation that they blow out Liberty.
Resume Comparison
These two teams are simply on different levels. Oregon, which plays in the Pac-12, competed against the likes of USC and Washington. Against Washington’s playoff-level defense, for example, the Ducks scored over 30 points twice in a row.
One can only wonder how many points they’ll score on a Liberty defense that failed to hold the likes of New Mexico State to below 35 points.
The Flames, who could maybe reach 40 points against teams like UTEP, lack the firepower to keep up with Oregon, whose starting quarterback and running back will exploit a Liberty defense that is missing players on all three levels.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon -17 (-110) at Bet365
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines
January, December 1, 2023 – 05:00 PM ET at Rose Bowl
Our computers indicate that Michigan will win this game by double digits, and I agree. You should bet on Michigan with the expectation that it wins comfortably.
Michigan Is Well-Tested
Alabama is in the playoffs because it beat a Georgia team that incessantly benefited from facing soft competition.
Michigan, however, beat Ohio State, a team that was 11-0 with wins at Notre Dame and against Penn State. In that game, the Wolverines held Ohio State’s star running back to 3.2 YPC. Their run defense is evidently top-caliber, which is bad news for an Alabama offense that wants to run the ball, calling run plays at the nation’s 15th-highest rate.
On the other side, their rush attack boasts two studs in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, who both exceeded five YPC against Penn State, which has the nation’s top-ranked run defense.
Takeaway
Both offenses will want to run the ball a lot, but Michigan’s will have much more success doing so.
The Wolverines are stacked with two great running backs, an offensive line that is routinely a Joe Moore Award competitor, and a stronger run defense.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan -1 (-110) at Bet365
Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies
Monday, January 01, 2023 – 08:45 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Our computers indicate that the underdog will cover the spread, and I agree.
Washington’s Offense
Washington’s offense is too tough for Texas to contain.
The Huskies boast an excellent quarterback and a stacked wide receiver crew. Michael Penix amassed over 4,200 yards and 33 touchdowns in the regular season.
With this pass attack, Washington matches up well against a frequently leaky Texas secondary that ranks a very concerning 86th in pass defense and that, when exploited, has also become vulnerable against the run.
Washington has more weapons against Texas, especially with the development of Huskies running back Dillon Johnson, who has run for between 80 and 260 rushing yards in each of his team’s last six games.
The Huskies’ offensive prowess and Texas’ defensive vulnerability will make it impossible for Texas to cover the spread because the Longhorns won’t get stops on defense and because they lack the same quality of weapons with which to keep pace.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +4 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
