Week 6 of the college football season was supposed to be something of a down week. There were no top-10 matchups and only two games between ranked opponents. That didn’t stop five ranked teams from losing, however.
Penn State fell further than any other team, per OddsTrader’s college football playoff projections. Coming into Saturday’s meeting with winless UCLA, the Nittany Lions had +950 odds to win the playoff at FanDuel. With the loss, they can now be had for +5000.
Other unexpected results included Florida over Texas and Cincinnati over Iowa State. The Longhorns were the preseason No. 1, while the Cyclones came into their meeting with the Bearcats a perfect 5-0 at No. 14.
College football remains as unpredictable as any sport, but by using the information we’ve gathered so far, we can dissect the latest CFP betting odds and split these teams up into three tiers. We’ll undoubtedly see more chaos – but when?
Top Tier Contenders
- Ohio State (+430)
- Oregon (+550)
- Alabama (+800)
- Miami (FL) (+900)
- Ole Miss (+1900)
- Texas A&M (+2000)
Ohio State tops the list at +430. The Buckeyes have made light work of their schedule thus far, limiting opponents to an NCAA-best 5.0 points per game. There are tougher matchups ahead (@ Illinois, vs. Penn State, @ Michigan), but Ohio State has every reason to believe it can win back-to-back national championships.
Oregon isn’t far behind, and it’s nearly through the most challenging part of its schedule. A 30-24 win over Penn State doesn’t look quite as impressive as it did at the time, but the Ducks will have a chance to prove themselves again when No. 7 Indiana comes to Eugene in Week 7.
Alabama is peaking at the right time. The Crimson Tide have won four straight since their Week 1 loss to Florida State, including victories over Georgia and Vanderbilt. Alabama still has four ranked teams left on its schedule, plus a year-end trip to Auburn, but it’s well-positioned to succeed.
Miami has a legitimate argument for being the No. 1 team in the nation. Wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida, and Florida State all look strong, and it should be relatively smooth-sailing the rest of the way. The Hurricanes have an easy in to the playoff.
Ole Miss has answered any and all questions thus far, going 5-0 and picking up a signature win over LSU in Week 5. Back-to-back road games against Georgia and Oklahoma in Weeks 8 and 9 loom large.
Texas A&M has a mighty impressive road win over Notre Dame under its belt, and it stuffed a solid Mississippi State team at home in Week 6. Upcoming visits to LSU and Missouri will tell us just how capable this team is of making a deep run.
On the Right Track
- Georgia (+1000)
- Oklahoma (+1800)
- Indiana (+3000)
- Texas Tech (+3000)
- LSU (+3000)
- Tennessee (+4000)
- Missouri (+5000)
Four undefeated teams highlight this group: Oklahoma, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Missouri. All four have challenging matchups ahead in Week 7. Wins would bump them up a tier, while a loss could spell disaster.
Oklahoma is set to take on Texas in the annual Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns will be as motivated as ever to bring down the Sooners following another disappointing loss, but do they have the talent to pull off the upset? Keep a close eye on this one.
Indiana, fresh off a bye week, will take on the mighty Ducks of Oregon. Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza looks like one of the best players in the nation, and their 63-10 win over then-No. 9 Illinois is a warning that this Indiana squad isn’t to be taken lightly.
Texas Tech has the “easiest” matchup of the bunch, a home game against Kansas. The Jayhawks are solid, though, with their only losses coming to Missouri and Cincinnati. The Red Raiders must be at their best to avoid a letdown here.
Missouri, with wins over Kansas and South Carolina, looks to keep things rolling at home against Alabama. The Tigers were thrashed 34-0 in their visit to Tuscaloosa in 2024. We’ll see if they can return the favor against the surging Crimson Tide.
Chaos Potential
- Texas (+2000)
- Notre Dame (+2500)
- Penn State (+5000)
- Michigan (+5500)
- Auburn (+8000)
- Vanderbilt (+8000)
- Georgia Tech (+12500)
- Cincinnati (+100000)
The top three teams in this tier – Texas, Notre Dame, and Penn State – have plenty in common. None of them have met lofty preseason expectations, though the Fighting Irish have arguably come the closest. Still, these teams were highly-touted for a reason, and if they can rally, they could be tough outs down the line.
Georgia Tech has a straightforward path to the playoff. Go undefeated through 11 of its first 12 regular-season games, and the Yellow Jackets are likely in whether they win or lose to Georgia. However, even with another loss along the way, a win in the ACC Championship (should they qualify) would punch their ticket.
Cincinnati narrowly lost its season-opener to Nebraska, but this team has looked sharp since, with consecutive wins over Kansas and previously undefeated Iowa State. The Bearcats still have a chance to strengthen their resume with upcoming games against Baylor, Utah, Arizona, BYU, and TCU. Keep a close eye on QB Brendan Sorsby.
