Last week, teams asserted themselves by proving that they belong in the playoff conversation.
Ohio State, for example, won its game by 70 points. That isn’t just a win: it’s a statement. Top-tier teams want to make statements. Against easy opponents, they have the opportunity to be loud and clear.
This is why heavily favored teams interest me for the college football picks of Week 3.
Favorites Have the Best Value This Week
I get a bad conscience from choosing favorites because it makes me worry that I am choosing the easy route. But when I compare the current spreads with what they should reasonably be, then I perceive great value in two giant favorites, Texas Tech and Oregon, as well as in a slightly favored Tulane team that many people wrongly think should be an underdog against Duke.
First of all, Tulane will command respect against Duke.
Now, when deciding whether to invest in a larger favorite, the first thing I look for is an ability to score a ton of points. Check that box for Texas Tech and Oregon. They are going to score too many points for their respective opponent to stay within cover range.
Oregon Ducks vs. Northwestern Wildcats (+27.5)
Northwestern has a terrible offense. In its only game against an FBS school, Northwestern scored all of three points against Tulane. For comparison’s sake, Tulane gave up 28 more points to South Alabama than it did to Northwestern.
Northwestern’s quarterback has always struggled to complete 60 percent of his passes and has more interceptions than touchdowns.
To succeed, he’ll need a lot of support from his rush attack. However, the Wildcats just lost their starting running back, Cam Porter, to a season-ending injury.
Whereas the Wildcats can’t score points, Oregon can.
The Ducks scored 69 points in their last game. They can amass even more rushing yards against Northwestern than Tulane did and can complement their rushing with the prolific productivity of quarterback Dante Moore, who is averaging 10.9 YPA.
Expert Pick: Oregon -28 (-110) at Caesars
Oregon State Beavers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-23.5)
Texas Tech will need to score 40+ points to cover the spread. In its two games thus far, Texas Tech has scored 67 and 62 points, respectively.
Oregon State has allowed 34 and 36 points, respectively, in its two games thus far. The Beavers recently surrendered 36 points to a Fresno State team that mustered all of seven points against Kansas.
By a significant margin, Oregon State is 0-2 ATS. The Beavers struggle especially to stop the run. Against them, Fresno State amassed 199 rushing yards. Texas Tech can accomplish even more with its 21st-ranked rush attack that is averaging 230 rushing yards per game.
The Red Raiders also have a solid defense now. They hired a defensive coordinator who reputedly excels at quickly and significantly improving bad defenses. Also, they acquired reliable and effective playmakers for every level of their defense.
Expert Pick: Texas Tech -23.5 (-110) at Caesars
Duke Blue Devils vs. Tulane Green Wave (-2)
Oddsmakers are begging for Duke money by dogging them, an ACC school, against a Tulane team that almost lost its last game to South Alabama.
Tulane’s run defense struggled last week for a reason that will not apply this week. Duke will not exploit this weakness with its 112th-ranked rush offense.
For Duke, giving up 17 points and 163 rushing yards to Elon creates a really bad look. The Blue Devils gave up 45 points to Illinois in their other game. Tulane has a solid rush attack featuring three running backs who average at least 5.2 YPC and an effective dual-threat quarterback.
Whereas Tulane can score a lot with this group, Duke will have to rely on its pass attack against a pass defense that ranks in the upper half despite the last-minute, futile scoring-from-behind of its opponent last week.
Expert Pick: Tulane -2 (-110) at Caesars
Place Your Bets
We have presented slam-dunk college football picks for week 3, with high-scoring Oregon getting another soft test, Texas Tech likewise primed to outscore its opponent by a massive amount, and Tulane ready to rely on its rush attack to outpace a one-dimensional Duke offense.
You’ll want to register at reputable sportsbooks in order to take advantage of these and other top NCAAF bets.
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More Expert Picks
Check out Jefe Picks’ deep dive into Week 3 of the NCAAF season below. And remember to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
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