It’s that time of the year again. An overthinker’s worst nightmare. Your friend who barely watches basketball’s time to shine. We’re talking, of course, about March Madness: One of the most chaotic, unpredictable sporting events on the annual calendar.
A perfect bracket has never been verified, but that shouldn’t stop you from trying to be the first to do it. At the very least, your goal should be to win your tournament pool.Â
Whether you’re playing with friends and family, going up against coworkers or throwing your hat in the national ring, we’ve got tips to help you make the most of every decision.
1. Put Bias Aside
It’s perfectly understandable to have a vendetta against certain teams – that’s what college sports are all about – but it’s essential to put your biases aside when you’re making your bracket. Making picks out of spite might work for a few matchups, but it’s hardly a winning strategy.
I understand how difficult it is for Michigan fans to pencil in Michigan State as a Final Four team, but if your path sends them there, you shouldn’t think twice about it. There are bigger things than petty rivalries, and if you’re serious about building a perfect bracket, you can rise above it.
2. Know Which Metrics to Rely on
Looking for more ways to narrow down the field? Consider looking into Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Otherwise known as KenPom, his metrics have often been a strong predictor of success in the NCAA Tournament.
For example: Every national champion has had at least a top 40 offense and a top 25 defense, according to his ratings. As of March 12, that means only the following teams should be in the mix:
- Duke
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Iowa State
- Florida
- Houston
- Michigan State
- Gonzaga
- Connecticut
- Tennessee
- Virginia
There are a few teams that just barely miss the cut, and it’s worth monitoring to see if they slide back into the qualifying range. Saint Mary’s ranks No. 20 in defense but No. 41 in offense. Illinois ranks No. 1 in offense but No. 27 in defense. Kansas and St. John’s aren’t far off in one category or the other, either.
3. Play the Pool, Not the Bracket
Considering the pool is important when you’re jumping into a group with friends. How many people are in your group? What’s their knowledge of the game? Most importantly, do you know who they’re picking to win it all?
If you’re in a smaller pool, you won’t need to take nearly as many risks as you would in a nation-wide challenge. Larger pools require you to break away from the public’s perception and forge your own path.Â
In short, it’s not worth taking unnecessary risks – especially in the first few rounds – when you’re just playing with family, friends or coworkers. Keep it fairly simple and make a few picks that go against the grain, but for the most part, chalk is your friend in these scenarios.Â
4. Understand Each Team’s Strengths and Weaknesses
It’s one thing to know how good or bad a team is, but it’s another thing entirely to understand why. If you know what a team excels at – and what it struggles with – it can help inform decisions as you get deeper into your bracket.
Matchups are hugely important in March Madness. A team may well have the perfect resume and look like the best bet to win it all, but if it gets matched up with the wrong team, it won’t matter whether or not they could’ve beaten every other contestant.Â
Does a team rely heavily on 3-pointers? Is its starting lineup taller or shorter on average? How does the team rank in rebounds per game? Turnovers? Free throw attempts and percentage? These are all factors that must be considered on a game-by-game basis.
5. Pick Informed Upsets
Upsets are one of the most exciting parts of March Madness, but you need to know what makes one worth picking. On top of individual strengths and weaknesses, seed parity is something worth considering. It’s far more likely that we see 11 seeds beat 6 seeds than 15s over 2s, for example.
Going into the 2026 NCAA Tournament, here’s how each first-round matchup has panned out historically:
- 1 vs. 16: 1 seeds are 158-2 (.988) against 16 seeds.
- 2 vs. 15: 2 seeds are 149-11 (.931) against 15 seeds.
- 3 vs. 14: 3 seeds are 137-23 (.856) against 14 seeds.
- 4 vs. 13: 4 seeds are 127-33 (.794) against 3 seeds.
- 5 vs. 12: 5 seeds are 103-57 (.644) against 12 seeds.
- 6 vs. 11: 6 seeds are 98-62 (.613) against 11 seeds.
- 7 vs. 10: 7 seeds are 97-62 (.610) against 10 seeds.
- 8 vs. 9: 8 seeds are 77-83 (.481) against 9 seeds.
Take a good look at these numbers and remember that there are four games of each seed matchup in the first round. From 5 vs. 12 and down, winning percentages indicate that you should pick at least one upset in each matchup for your entire bracket. The 4 vs. 13 matchup is right on the border of happening once every four games, so that can be a call worth making as well.
Of course, things don’t always work out so perfectly. In 2025, all four 13 seeds lost their first-round matchups, and two 12 seeds (McNeese and Colorado State) won their opening games. The 7 vs. 10 matchup was split 50-50, and no teams seeded 13-16 won in the first round.
6. Keep Tabs on the News
You can’t go back and change your picks if a star player suffers an injury during March Madness, but you can bring yourself as up to date as possible before the action begins. Checking injury reports before you make your selections is an excellent way to make sure you leave no stone unturned in your research.
It’s not just injuries to be mindful of, either. Recent winning or losing streaks can help inform decisions if you’re stuck between two teams.Â
The point here is that you can’t be too informed. Don’t go in blind or you may beat yourself up for not taking advantage of freely available information.Â
A team’s hometown beat reporters are often the most reliable sources of information here. Whether it’s the local newspaper, student media, TV station or radio, these journalists will have the most pertinent and up-to-date facts on the team’s status.
7. Use Sportsbook Odds for Tough Calls
While you shouldn’t use sportsbook odds to pick every single game of your bracket, they can be helpful in determining which way to lean for tougher calls. They can also be a good way to understand the general consensus regarding a team’s chances of winning it all. It’s not uncommon for a 3 seed to have better odds to win the title than a 2 seed, for example.
Let’s say Kansas and Illinois are set to play each other. Kansas might have +4000 odds to win the NCAA Tournament, while Illinois comes in at +2000. In this case, Illinois has a pretty clear edge in the eyes of oddsmakers.
Unsure where to look? Check out our list of the best offshore sportsbooks to find the sharpest betting odds for March Madness.
8. Prioritize the Sweet 16
As far as bracket challenges are concerned, points scale as you progress deeper into the tournament. It’s much more valuable to correctly pick a team to advance to the Final Four than it is to win one or two games the opening weekend.
Therefore, it’s almost essential that you nail down the Sweet 16. Doing so gives you a much better chance at crafting the winning bracket, and it’s a great way to ensure that you’re maximizing your points the rest of the way.
Now for the key bracket fact: At least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the past 17 tournaments and in 38 out of the last 40. If you reach this stage of your entry and don’t have at least one bracket-buster in the mix, you may want to reconsider your picks.
9. Find that Old AP Poll
Generally speaking, NCAA Tournament champions have sustained success throughout the season, not just in March. Case in point: Since 2004, every NCAA champion has been ranked inside the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll.Â
Let’s go all the way back to Dec. 8 to see which teams made the cut. Current rank is shown in parentheses:
- Arizona (2)
- Michigan (3)
- Duke (1)
- Iowa State (7)
- UConn (6)
- Purdue (18)
- Houston (5)
- Gonzaga (12)
- Michigan State (8)
- BYU (NR)
- Louisville (24)
- Alabama (15)
For the most part, all 12 of these teams remain among the favorites to cut down the nets. BYU is the only team that’s fallen completely out of the top 25, but the Cougars are still expected to make the field as a fairly high seed.Â
As you start filling out your bracket, it’s probably in your best interest to ensure that you have one of these 12 winning it all.
10. Location, Location, Location
No team gets a true home-court advantage in the NCAA Tournament, but that doesn’t mean you should completely disregard where games are being played. Reduced travel times for one team’s fans can make it so the audience has a more or less favorable split. This can provide an especially strong boost to lower-seeded teams looking to pull off a major upset.
This year, the regional semifinals and finals will be held in Houston (South), San Jose (West), Chicago (Midwest) and Washington, D.C. (East). This is the last stage before the tournament progresses to the Final Four, which is held in Indianapolis.
In Review
There isn’t just one factor that makes a strong bracket. Like all the best things, it takes time and effort to do the research, put it all together and make your picks. And even then, because of the nature of March Madness, your bracket could be busted by the end of the first game.
The most important tip to consider this year? Have fun. No one has ever created a perfect bracket, and that’s likely to remain the case once this year’s tournament comes to a close. Give it your best shot, but don’t forget to revel in the joy of a big upset just because you didn’t see it coming.
