When it comes to March Madness, overall records only mean so much. Wins and losses help determine seeding and qualification, but in truth, you’re only as good as your last game. That’s why sustained, late-season success is emphasized so heavily at the start of the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s make one thing clear: Hot streaks are not always indicative of deeper runs during March Madness. There’s even some thought that expending energy in conference tournaments can have a negative impact on performance in the first and second rounds.
With that said, how a team finishes the regular season can provide a solid baseline for what we should expect from them once the NCAA Tournament begins. Momentum may be difficult to quantify, but any player – former or current – will maintain that it’s a very real thing.
Teams Peaking at the Right Time
The following teams have boosted their stock entering conference tournament week. Whether they can sustain that success remains to be seen, but they’ve likely all solidified their standing as top tournament seeds (or put themselves in a more favorable position).
Florida Gators Positioned to Repeat?
It wasn’t too long ago that Florida was unranked. In early January, the Gators were 9-5 and had fallen out of the top 25 despite entering the year at No. 3. The defending champions suffered early losses to Arizona, Duke and Connecticut – legitimate powerhouses – but also dropped games against less-imposing forces in TCU and Missouri.
Florida has gone 16-1 since that point, falling only to Auburn in late January. Since then, the Gators have won 11 in a row, with notable victories coming over Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky (twice) and Arkansas.
What makes the Gators so terrifying is their ability to control the glass. Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh combine to average 25.4 boards per game for Florida, which ranks No. 1 nationally in total rebounds.
Duke Rolling Through Rivals
Duke has been a mainstay near the top of the AP Top 25 all season, and it enters the ACC tournament ranked No. 1 for the third consecutive week. Led by freshman forward Cameron Boozer, the Blue Devils place seventh and first, respectively, in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Duke lost to rival North Carolina on Feb. 7, but it’s been dominant since then, winning each of its final eight games. That includes victories over Michigan and a revenge spot against UNC to close out the regular season.
Even if it doesn’t hold form through the ACC tournament, Duke has made a strong enough argument to earn the No. 1 overall seed in March Madness.
Michigan Caps Near-Perfect Year
The Big Ten is arguably the nation’s best conference this season, so it speaks volumes about the strength of this Michigan team that it managed a 19-1 record against conference opponents. Only Wisconsin could break through, and it took a historic 3-point shooting performance to get it done.
Michigan closed the regular season on a 9-1 run, with the only loss coming by five points to top-ranked Duke. The Wolverines blew through top-tier Big Ten opponents including Purdue, Illinois, Iowa and Michigan State, taking all but one by double figures.
Per KenPom, Michigan ranks fourth in offensive rating and second in defensive – all while playing the nation’s fourth-toughest schedule. The Wolverines have every reason to stay hot as they enter the NCAA Tournament as a projected No. 1 seed.
Arizona’s Smooth Recovery
Following a 23-0 start, Arizona dropped two games in a row in mid-February. The losses came by just seven combined points, but some teams would have trouble overcoming them and moving forward.
These Wildcats didn’t have trouble turning the page, though, and managed to win each of their last six games, rattling off consecutive wins over BYU, Houston, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State and Colorado. That’s a gauntlet, to say the least.
It’s an excellent sign that Arizona can bounce back from adversity, let alone in the manner that it did. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Wildcats didn’t lose another game, but they’ll have their work cut out for them in the Big 12 tournament.
Wisconsin Catching Fire
How’s this for peaking at the right time: Wisconsin matched its highest ranking (23) of the regular season in the final AP poll before the Big Ten tournament. The Badgers are very much a threat.
After going 9-5 through early January, Wisconsin ended the year by going 13-4 to finish with the fifth-best record in a loaded Big Ten. During that stretch, the Badgers went a perfect 4-0 against ranked opponents, slaying giants including Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue. Notably, three of those four wins came on the road.
Wisconsin can fall victim to the occasional cold shooting night, and its defense leaves a lot to be desired. However, this team’s ability to seemingly save its best basketball for the biggest nights is a sign that it could outperform its NCAA Tournament seeding.
Teams Slumping into Tournament Season
These five teams can make up some ground in their conference tournaments, but as it stands, they appear to be in worse shape than they were in the middle of the season. Whether it be due to injuries or a streak of poor performances down the stretch, these teams are slumping at the worst time.
Purdue’s Late-Season Collapse
Once 17-1, Purdue ended the season by losing seven of its final 13 games, including three of its last four. The Boilermakers’ lackluster defense was on full display: Both Michigan and Wisconsin dropped 90-plus points, including 97 from the Badgers in Purdue’s final regular-season game.
What’s concerning about the Boilers’ collapse is that nearly all of its losses came against NCAA Tournament-quality opponents. Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State all picked up victories, as did UCLA, Indiana, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Purdue did beat Nebraska and Iowa, however.
One of the consequences of falling apart down the stretch? The Boilermakers earned the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten tournament and now face a much more difficult path to earning a higher seed in March Madness.
BYU in Freefall
Earlier this season, BYU was 16-1 and ranked as high as the No. 7 team in the country. The Cougars are just 5-9 since then, mostly on account of a horrid defense that’s allowed 84.3 points per game since Jan. 17.
The back half of BYU’s schedule was, admittedly, loaded with tough opponents. The Cougars played Texas Tech (twice), Arizona (twice), Kansas, Houston and Iowa State in the final months of the regular season. BYU went 2-5 in those games.
The Cougars have the top-end talent to go toe-to-toe with most teams – AJ Dybantsa is the real deal – but it’s hard to feel confident in their chances of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament given how they’ve performed lately.
Gonzaga Can’t Capitalize
The West Coast Conference hasn’t been a true powerhouse since Bill Russell was suiting up for San Francisco, so strength of schedule will never be a favorable talking point for Gonzaga. Per KenPom, the Bulldogs’ ranked 88th this season, a number that’s significantly boosted by their non-conference games.
Gonzaga sustained two losses in its final 10 games, and while that might not sound that bad, it’s worth pointing out that one came against the Portland Pilots – one of the WCC’s worst teams. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs lost to rival Saint Mary’s in their regular-season finale.
These losses may be easy to overcome, but it’s not a great sign that Gonzaga couldn’t handle lesser opponents.
Houston’s Cause for Concern
Houston hasn’t been ranked lower than 10th this season, but their uncharacteristic late-season three-game skid is worrying. From Feb. 16 to 23, the Cougars went 0-3 against Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas. They scored a season-low 56 points against the Jayhawks.
Houston recovered by winning each of its last three games, but a 7-3 stretch to close the regular season is well below expectations for a team that’s been expected to contend for a national title all year.
This team still boasts one of the nation’s best defenses, but they don’t score enough points to separate themselves against uptempo offenses. The Cougars need to find their form during the Big 12 tournament if they want to make a deep run during March Madness.
Kansas Plummeting Back to Earth
Few teams, if any, have experienced as many highs and lows as Kansas has this year. Freshman guard Darryn Peterson has had some big performances, but he’s also been the cause of some frustration. It doesn’t help that the Jayhawks dropped four of their last seven games.
From Jan. 13 to Feb. 9, Kansas went 4-0 against ranked opponents and handed Arizona, then 23-0, its first loss of the season. The Jayhawks followed that up by falling to Iowa State, Cincinnati, Arizona and Arizona State, and the defense suffered along the way.
As it stands, Kansas doesn’t carry much momentum into the Big 12 tournament. An early exit could spell trouble for their national title hopes.
Latest Odds To Make Final Four
The Final Four forecast is clear. Unless something drastic happens, some teams look like near-locks to advance to the NCAA Tournament’s final stages. But do the odds reflect that?
All odds are courtesy of BetOnline and are current as of March 9.
- Michigan (-170)
- Duke (-165)
- Arizona (-110)
- Florida (+125)
- Houston (+180)
- Illinois (+325)
- UConn (+375)
- Purdue (+500)
- Kansas (+850)
- Arkansas (+1000)
Based on what we’ve gone over, the top four teams featured here – Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Florida – should be well-positioned to make a deep run.
Meanwhile, Houston, Purdue and Kansas – teams that have stumbled down the stretch – could be a good or bad value, depending on how you see it. Are their late-season performances more indicative of what’s to come? Or should we consider their full resumes?
Of these teams, Florida is my favorite to make the Final Four. The Gators are looking to repeat as national champions and are playing their best basketball at the right time of year. Their overall record is worse than that of Michigan, Arizona or Duke, but they’ve played just as well lately, making them a strong choice at +125.
NCAA Tournament Winner Odds
Let’s take things a step further and check out the national title favorites, per BetOnline:
- Michigan (+325)
- Duke (+365)
- Arizona (+600)
- Florida (+625)
- Houston (+900)
- UConn (+1600)
- Illinois (+2000)
- Iowa State (+2200)
- Purdue (+2500)
- Michigan State (+4000)
We see a similar picture here, and oddsmakers seemingly agree that late-season slumps don’t help one’s case. Purdue notably had +950 odds to win the NCAA Tournament at the start of the season, and that number dropped to +850 following their 8-0 start. Now, they’re a distant +2500.
From this group, Arizona arguably provides the best value. The Wildcats were one of the most consistent teams all year, and when they did drop a few games, they bounced back in a major way. They may not be on the same level as Michigan and Duke, but seeing them priced at +600 feels unfair.
