The computers at OddsTrader continue to give us quality bets to place. Here are three more to consider for today’s Sunday slate.
Picks Summary
- Twins/Athletics Under 8 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mariners ML (-182) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Angels +1.5 (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, July 16, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Our AI Model believes that the Twins and Athletics will combine for 6.9 runs. However, the total is currently set at 8 for this matchup. The Twins are projected to win this game, 3.6-3.3.
Taking an Under with Joe Ryan on the mound has been a smart decision. Ryan has struck out close to 33% of batters in the last month for the Twins, and he’s limited walks to just 2.5%. He’s had more struggles against righties, allowing a .475 ISO and wOBA of .493 to his last 59 righties.
However, the Athletics have six lefties in their projected lineup. Those lefties have hit a .121 ISO and wOBA of .270. Meanwhile, Ryan has held lefties to a .086 ISO and wOBA of .216 over the last month.
On the other hand, J.P. Sears will get the ball for the Athletics. He’s been surprisingly good as well. Sears has struck out over 23% of batters in the last month and has limited his previous 120 batters to a wOBA of .267.
The Twins might get more power from their righties against Sears, but Sears should be able to limit damage, knowing he’s allowed just 5.8% of walks.
The Under 8 is a good choice at the MLB odds board, with both pitchers rarely walking batters.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, July 16, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model believes that the Seattle Mariners will earn a 5.7-3.6 win over the Detroit Tigers today. The Mariners are the favorites at -182, but a win over two runs would make that -182 look like a valuable play.
The Detroit Tigers will pitch Reese Olson for today’s final game of the series. Olson has allowed a .239 ISO to righties but has overall been solid, keeping his wOBA down to .267 against his last 78 batters.
Olson has still allowed high-fly balls and is inducing low-ground balls. He’s also giving up plenty of hard contact against both sides of the plate.
The Mariners have four batters hitting a high ISO against righties in the last month and five batters hitting a high wOBA against righties over the previous 30 days.
On the other hand, Bryce Miller will get the call. He’s only thrown against 58 batters in the last month due to an injury, but he’s back on the mound today. He held teams to a .130 ISO and wOBA of .265 over the previous month and has been dominant against righties as a right-handed pitcher.
The Tigers have more pop in their lineup but face a much more difficult pitcher. With Detroit striking out nearly 26% of the time against righties, it will be hard for them to find pop if they can’t consistently put the ball in play.
I agree with the Mariners on the moneyline.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-182) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sunday, July 16, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model suggests that the Astros will defeat the Angels 4.8-4.7 in tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball matchup. If the game is projected to be that close, the run line for the Angels seems like the play.
What happened to Cristian Javier? He’s struck out under 10% of batters in the last month, despite earning over 30% of strikeouts against righties. Javier has allowed a .314 ISO and wOBA of .502 to his last 61 batters faced. That’s not someone I’d want to bet.
The Angels don’t have Mike Trout in the lineup, but they’ve got five batters hitting an ISO of at least .188 against righties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Tyler Anderson will pitch for the Angels. He’s a lefty who has been better than recently. He’s held teams to a .132 ISO and wOBA of .299 over the last month and has struck out 26.7% of batters. That’s up from 18% of strikeouts on the season. So, he’s truly improving.
The Angels are slight underdogs projected to lose by .1 runs with our model. That’s why I think taking the run line for the Angels is safe.
MLB Pick: Angels +1.5 (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
