The World Baseball Classic Semifinals are set. The United States of America will battle the Dominican Republic tonight at 8:00 pm ET for a spot in the Finals. The winner of this game will play the winner of tomorrow’s Venezuela-Italy matchup.
That said, let’s get to your baseball picks today.
World Baseball Classic Best Bets Today
The Dominican Republic has looked like far and away the best baseball team in the Classic. However, the United States is the favorite tonight.
That likely has to do with the fact that Paul Skenes is taking the mound for the Americans. It’ll be Luis Severino for the DR. Ultimately, Severino is serviceable. But he’s a mid-end starter in the MLB.
Paul Skenes won back-to-back Cy Youngs on a team that is never in postseason contention.
Dig Deep!
Before betting on the World Baseball Classic, you must know the key rules.
For example, a starting pitcher is allowed a maximum of 95 pitches in the semifinals and finals. That’s more than the maximum in the other stages of the tournament.
Skenes has the potential to go six strong for the USA, keeping them afloat. That said, it sounds like the USA will keep Skenes at about 75-80 pitches. This is important to know when making your betting decisions. In addition:
- Pitchers must face at least three batters or reach the end of the inning
- A pitcher can’t throw on three consecutive days
- If a pitcher throws at least 30 pitches, he must rest one day
- If a pitcher throws 50+ pitches, he has to rest for at least four days
Dig deep and do your research before you place any baseball bet!
United States vs. Dominican Republic
Sunday, March 15, 08:00 PM ET
Paul Skenes started one earlier game for the United States of America. He was far and away the team’s best pitcher after earning seven strikeouts and a win in his lone start. On the other hand, he’ll take on Luis Severino, who also added a win in his lone start. Severino has a 2.25 ERA in the WBC and earned five strikeouts.
Severino will be amped up. But the reality is, he finished the 2025 season with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He’s a legitimate MLB pitcher, but not the ace that Skenes is.
For example, Skenes finished 2025 with a 1.97 ERA and a WHIP of .95. He’s the best pitcher in the entire world and will face a wild Dominican Republic lineup.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a .438 average with a 1.404 OPS. O’Neil Cruz doesn’t even start and has a .750 batting average with a 3.357 OPS. Junior Caminero has hit a .375 average with a 1.257 OPS. Ultimately, the lineup is ridiculous from top to bottom and easily better than the USA roster.
However, if Skenes can shut the door for five innings, the United States could have the lead entering the later portion of the game.
The hitting has had its moments in the WBC, but lately, they’ve struggled to stay consistent. The offense needs to score early for Skenes. If it can do that, I’d feel confident in the USA. They’ve got the pitching to shut the door on an explosive offense.
I’ll back the USA at -135 tonight.
The Betting Starts Now
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