We’re left with only one game on tonight’s MLB slate.
There are already two teams that have clinched the next round of the MLB Postseason. But we’re still waiting on two more teams before the NLCS and ALCS can begin.
Tonight, it’ll be Game 5 between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners. The winner of tonight’s game, in Seattle, will play the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS.
Ultimately, the Tigers found themselves trailing in Game 4, 3-0, as they approached the bottom of the 5th. But in the 5th inning, Detroit tied it and eventually scored nine unanswered runs to win 9-3 and force Game 5 in the best-of-5 series.
The Tigers’ win will allow Tarik Skubal to take the mound for the Tigers. Skubal is an AL Cy Young candidate who finished the regular season with a 2.21 ERA. So that begs the question: do the Mariners have a chance?
MLB Best Bets Today
We’re heading into Friday’s MLB game with +.41 units of profit over the last five bets. With only one game on tonight’s slate, we’re looking to increase the profit by nearly one unit.
We’re looking to bet on the Under 6 in this Tigers-Mariners win-or-go-home matchup. With two quality pitchers and two terrific bullpens, it’s the best bet on the slate in my eyes.
Record: 3-2, +.41 units
Start The Weekend Strong!
If you’re looking to start the weekend strong, consider tailing the best bet of the night in this Tigers-Mariners Game 5 ALDS matchup.
This has been an exciting series throughout. You can expect an exciting, down-to-the-wire finish, especially with Skubal and George Kirby listed as the probable starters.
If you’re looking to tail my best bet below, consider opening up a new sportsbook or jumping on an existing account to get in on the action. If you want the best line, it’s better to get in sooner before the line starts to drift the other way.
Under 6 (-130) at Caesars
Betting the Under 6 in a baseball game is pretty scary. After all, a team has the opportunity to score four runs on a single play in a game. But let’s talk it through.
George Kirby will pitch for the Mariners. Over the last 30 days, he’s struck out 45.3% of batters and has allowed just a .265 wOBA. He’ll take on a Tigers projected lineup that has struck out 24.1% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. With so many strikeout targets, Kirby looks great on paper.
Plus, the Detroit lineup has been average at best against righties, hitting a combined .125 ISO and wOBA of .289. The lineup has walked only 7.4% of the time against righties. Kirby rarely walks batters. As a matter of fact, he’s walked only 5.5% of batters all season long.
On the other hand, Tarik Skubal will start for the Tigers. The left-handed ace has struck out almost 35% of batters over the last month. He’s also limited his last 121 batters to a .289 wOBA with 49.3% of ground balls.
While the Mariners have more power in the projected lineup, there are still five batters who have hit a wOBA of no better than .282 against lefties in the last 30 days. Let’s say Skubal allows a home run or two; it’s more likely that these home runs will come with no runners on base.
If he can limit damage on these home runs against the Mariners, he’ll be able to keep the score low.
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Tips for MLB Picks
- This is a win-or-go-home game. This game will likely stay tight, with managers doing whatever they can to stay in the game.
- Compare head-to-head stats over the last 30 days between the pitcher and hitter.
- Use advanced analytics to help decide the true probability of each outcome.
- Don’t go overboard. It’s the playoffs. We can’t take advantage of bad pitchers like in the regular season.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
