With 16 games on the slate in the MLB, there are plenty of value bets on today’s odds board. I used the AI Model to find the top three bets and shared them below. Jump in on the action!
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 – 9:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model thinks Hunter Greene will allow 3.35 hits for the Reds tonight. Meanwhile, his hits allowed prop is at 4.5, with the under at just -130. That’s a +18.8% EV bet.
Is Hunter Greene Back To Being An Ace?
The Reds have always had high expectations for Hunter Greene. He’s finally pitching consistently this year.
The Reds’ right-hander has struck out 30.6% of batters this year. He’s also walked only 5.4% of batters this season. In addition, he’s allowed a .266 wOBA to 258 batters faced this year.
He just returned to the mound recently and struck out 28.6% of his last 21 batters. He’s still pitching very consistently and looks great on the mound.
On the other hand, he’ll take on an Angels lineup that has hit a .137 ISO and a wOBA of .306 with 28.1% of strikeouts against righties. The Angels are getting solid hitting from Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo. But that’s about it.
Greene should be able to dominate this Angels lineup and limit all the hits.
I’m on Hunter Greene to allow under 4.5 hits in tonight’s game for the Reds. He’s going to add many strikeouts tonight.
MLB Pick: Hunter Greene Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-130) at Caesars
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Our AI Model believes Austin Hedges will add .253 total bases. While his total bases prop is at .5, the under is set at -120. That’s a massive play!
Don’t Expect Power From Hedges
Austin Hedges has hit a .091 ISO against his last 12 left-handed pitchers. The righty has hit 60% of ground balls during that stretch and only 10% of fly balls. He’s also added a 0% barrel percentage and only has 30% of hard-hit balls.
He’ll battle Eduardo Rodriguez of the Diamondbacks, who has still held his last 123 righties to a .148 ISO. Rodriguez has been able to limit line drives against righties and has also allowed a BABIP of .291. Plus, he’s given up a 6.7% barrel percentage to righties.
Hedges is already struggling to hit for power. It’s very unlikely, batting in the 9-spot, that he’ll be able to hit for any kind of power against Rodriguez tonight.
Back Hedges to add below .5 total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Austin Hedges Under .5 Total Bases (-120) at Caesars
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Our AI Model predicts Elias Diaz will add .317 total hits tonight. The Padres’ catcher currently has a prop set at .5, with the under at +100. That’s another steal according to the AI Model.
It’s Been Rough For Elias Diaz
The Padres will likely bat Elias Diaz last in the lineup tonight. The right-handed catcher has hit a .042 ISO and wOBA of .212 with 38.5% of strikeouts over the last 30 days against righties.
Meanwhile, he’s facing Kai-Wei Teng of the Giants, who really hasn’t played well against righties. Yet, despite pitching poorly, Teng has held his last 15 righties to a .286 BABIP.
If there’s any easy out in the lineup for Teng, it’s Diaz, who is batting 9th and struggling severely.
Let’s back the AI Model and take Diaz to earn below .5 total hits in tonight’s game for the Padres.
MLB Pick: Elias Diaz Under .5 Total Hits (+100) at Caesars
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