In the MLB, even the worst teams will win 40+ games this season. That’s why you can find so much value when betting on underdogs in the MLB. There are upsets that happen regularly. Therefore, I checked in with the AI Model and found three underdog bets for tonight’s games. Let’s get to it!
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins
Friday, August 22, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at loanDepot park
The AI Model believes the Marlins will only lose to the Blue Jays, 4.2-4.0. Still, Miami has odds on the moneyline at +136. With the margin so close, the Marlins at +136 is the way to go.
Don’t Believe in Bieber Yet, Marlins Are the Value Play
Shane Bieber was traded from the Guardians to the Blue Jays at the MLB Trade Deadline. Tonight, he’ll finally make his debut for the Blue Jays. He’s a pitcher with a terrific resume. But he’s not going to pitch deep in tonight’s game. He’s also going to have some growing pains as he gets back on the field.
He’ll compete against Ryan Gusto of the Marlins, who has struck out 26.5% of batters over the last month. Gusto has also limited his last 68 batters to a .150 ISO and has walked just 5.9% of batters.
Gusto looks good right now. I’d rather bet on him than a guy who hasn’t seen the mound all season.
I’m with the AI Model and will back the Marlins at +136. There’s value there.
MLB Pick: Marlins ML (+136) at Caesars
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday, August 22, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
The Atlanta Braves are slight underdogs at home against the New York Mets tonight. Yet, the AI Model thinks the Braves will add a 4.6-3.7 win over the Mets. At -104, you’ll easily want to back the Braves here.
Fading Rookie Nolan McLean
The Mets will give Nolan McLean his second start in the big leagues. His first was phenomenal. He struck out 38.1% of batters and allowed a .000 ISO and wOBA of .216. However, he still walked 19% of batters, and that could get him in trouble down the line.
On the other hand, Joey Wentz will pitch for the Braves. He’s a lefty, and that’s someone the Mets don’t want to see right now.
New York has hit a .128 ISO and wOBA of .247 against lefties over the last 30 days. They’ve also struck out close to 25% of the time against lefties.
Therefore, let’s back the Braves at -104.
MLB Pick: Braves ML (-104) at Caesars
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, August 22, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
The AI Model predicts the Arizona Diamondbacks will earn a 5.4-3.8 victory over the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Although Arizona is the favorite, you can find the Diamondbacks at -1.5 (+158) on the run line. Since the AI Model likes the Diamondbacks by a large margin, let’s roll with it.
Why the Diamondbacks Are Worth a Run Line Play
The Cincinnati Reds have hit a .120 ISO and wOBA of .296 against righties over the last 30 days. The lineup has also walked just 7.5% and has struck out nearly 22% of the time against righties.
Ryne Nelson hasn’t been perfect for Arizona. But he’s limited walks and has earned more than 25% of strikeouts against his last 119 batters. That should play out well tonight.
On the other hand, Zack Littell will get the start for the Reds. The righty has allowed a .192 ISO and wOBA of .329 to his last 54 righties. He’s also struck out 16.1% of batters over the last month and will take on an Arizona lineup that has hit much better over the last month against righties. Try the Diamondbacks at -1.5 (+158).
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+158) at Caesars
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
