The road to crowning the 2026 NCAA Basketball Tournament champion is narrowing. Top-ranked Florida and last year’s champion was sent packing by No. 9 Iowa in the second round – making the Gators the first top-two seed eliminated from this year’s bracket. March Madness has been relatively chalk so far, but with the Sweet 16 on deck, that could change in a hurry.
The Sweet Sixteen is where the tournament truly takes shape. Regular-season resumes no longer matter. The momentum from March Madness action is king, and the 16 teams still standing have all shown they belong.
With tip-off for the Sweet 16 set for March 26, we’re breaking down the latest national championship odds to identify the best, and worst, championship futures bets you can make before the next round begins.
2026 March Madness Winner Odds
Odds are courtesy of Bovada and current as of March 23.
- Michigan (+310)
- Arizona (+350)
- Duke (+400)
- Houston (+700)
- Purdue (+1400)
- Illinois (+1500)
- Iowa State (+1800)
- Connecticut (+2500)
- Michigan State (+2500)
- St. John’s (+2500)
- Arkansas (+3300)
- Nebraska (+6000)
- Tennessee (+6000)
- Alabama (+10000)
- Iowa (+10000)
- Texas (+25000)
East Region
The East has been the chalkiest region thus far. Only two upsets have come from this bracket, and they were a 9 vs. 8 and a 5 vs. 4 – not exactly Cinderella material. There have been close calls, however, which could help us find some value moving forward.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (+400)
The top overall seed survived an upset bid from No. 16 Siena in the Round of 64, trailing by 11 at the half before going on to win 71-65. Had Siena not run out of gas late in the second half, there’s a real chance that the Blue Devils wouldn’t be dancing right now. To the team’s credit, Duke responded in the second round against No. 9 TCU, riding another strong second half to an 81-58 victory.Â
You can treat Duke’s early vulnerability in one or two ways, but I’m viewing it as a genuine concern – mostly because the Blue Devils are down two starters. They may be able to survive against lesser opponents on the strength of Cameron Boozer, but the lack of depth is going to hurt them sooner rather than later. I can’t recommend a bet at +400.Â
No. 2 Connecticut Huskies (+2500)
Connecticut is another giant that’s looked somewhat vulnerable thus far. An 11-point win over No. 15 Furman was too close for comfort, and No. 7 UCLA hung around far longer than they should have before the Huskies pulled away in the final minutes.
UConn doesn’t look like a great bet to make it out of its region, let alone win the national championship. There’s something to be said about a team’s ability to win ugly, but this roster lacks the separation necessary to string together win after win. UConn is a better value than Duke, but this is still not a great bet.
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (+2500)
Michigan State rolled through No. 14 North Dakota State in the Round of 64 and nearly went wire-to-wire in its win over No. 6 Louisville to punch its ticket to the Sweet 16. Jeremy Fears has impressed, and Coen Carr is playing his best basketball at the perfect time.
The Spartans have the edge over UConn right now, and they may well have what it takes to get by Duke as well. So long as Tom Izzo keeps his team focused on each individual game, Michigan State could be a sneaky national title threat. This is worth a small gamble at +2500.
No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm (+2500)
St. John’s was underseeded coming into the NCAA Tournament, and it shows. The Big East regular season and tournament champion is ranked No. 10 in the AP poll but is merely a No. 5 seed in the Big Dance. They’ve taken care of business thus far, thrashing No. 12 Northern Iowa and knocking off No. 4 Kansas.
The Johnnies have a solid answer for Boozer in Zuby Ejiofor, and their depth has been a strength, not a weakness, throughout March Madness. I could see them going on to represent the East in the Final Four, but I’d stop short of calling them a legitimate title contender. It’s worth waiting to see how this team performs this week before placing a bet.
West Region
The West has the NCAA Tournament’s lowest remaining seed, a few sleepers and a serious powerhouse. Don’t overlook any team in this region.Â
No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (+350)
No. 9 Utah State made things interesting in the second round, but Arizona has been as sure a thing as you’ll find in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Don’t hold the Wildcats’ inexperience against them, either, because star freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat have been terrific.
If you’re going to pick a No. 1 seed to win March Madness – a wise decision – Arizona just might be the safest pick. If this team can make it out of the West, they’ll be the favorite to win it all just in time for the Final Four.
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (+1400)
Purdue has bounced back from a rough end to the regular season in a major way, winning the Big Ten Tournament and delivering two convincing wins in the Big Dance. No. 15 Queens didn’t prove to be a real threat despite the Boilers’ recent struggles with low seeds, and a strong second half propelled them past scrappy No. 7 Miami (FL).
Purdue has a favorable matchup on tap against No. 11 Texas, but a date in the Elite 8 with either No. 1 Arizona or No. 4 Arkansas could prove to be problematic. The Boilermakers undoubtedly have the talent to win it all, but their inconsistency this season makes them a tough sell at +1400.Â
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks (+3300)
Arkansas has had a relatively easy path thus far, blowing out No. 13 Hawaii in the Round of 64 before surviving No. 12 High Point’s upset bid to advance to the Sweet 16. Darius Acuff Jr. has done everything and more for the Razorbacks, notching 60 points and 13 assists through two games.
Arkansas carries this massive number largely because it’s matched up with No. 1 Arizona, which has lost all of two games by a combined seven points this season. And while the Razorbacks have their faults, this offense is capable of winning against anyone. There’s real value in making this bet at +3300.Â
No. 11 Texas Longhorns (+25000)
Sean Miller’s Texas Longhorns have delivered thriller after thriller in the NCAA Tournament, defeating No. 11 NC State, No. 6 BYU and No. 3 Gonzaga by 16 combined points. They’ve gotten balanced play on both ends of the floor and strong work from seven-footer Matas Vokietaitis, who’s averaging 18.3 points and 11 rebounds per game in the Big Dance.
Let’s be real, though: BYU was weak for a No. 6 seed, and Gonzaga’s resume didn’t exactly add up to a No. 3, either. The Longhorns deserve credit for getting to this point, but it’s difficult to see them overcoming No. 2 Purdue, let alone anyone else.
South Region
The South is the only region where the No. 1 team is no longer standing. History suggests that there isn’t a title contender remaining in this group, but a few of these teams could make it happen if a few things break in their favor.
No. 2 Houston Cougars (+700)
Quietly, Houston has dominated its opponents en route to another Sweet 16. The Cougars defeated No. 15 Idaho and No. 10 Texas A&M by 31 points apiece, looking strong on both ends of the floor in each win.
Houston faces a real test against No. 3 Illinois, but if it can advance, one would have to assume it could defeat either No. 4 Nebraska or No. 9 Iowa in the Elite 8. Things become less certain in the Final Four, but remember: The Cougars were last year’s runner-up, and their metrics go toe-to-toe with every other No. 1 seed still in the mix. The Cougars are absolutely worth a bet at +700.
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (+1500)
After an early exit from the Big Ten Tournament, Illinois has turned it on. The nation’s top-ranked offense has delivered against No. 14 Penn and No. 11 VCU, scoring 181 points between the two opponents. The Fighting Illini have also shown up on defense, allowing just over 62 points per game.
A matchup with No. 2 Houston is a true contrast in styles. Illinois pushes the pace and takes a ton of 3-pointers, while the Cougars prefer to grind it out and win on defense. Illinois has had trouble with such opponents this year, so I’m unsure that they can advance to the Elite 8, let alone win the national title.Â
No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers (+6000)
Nebraska earned its first NCAA Tournament win in program history when it blew out No. 13 Troy in the Round of 64, but it didn’t stop there. The Cornhuskers battled with No. 5 Vanderbilt and survived, 74-72, after a last-second heave from the Commodores went in and out.Â
Nebraska now gets Big Ten rival No. 9 Iowa, which it went 1-1 against this season. Neither team looks like a legitimate threat to contend for the national championship, but they’re fun stories nonetheless. Take a risk at +6000 if you want – that’s a huge payday – but I’m staying out.
No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes (+10000)
No. 1 Florida was bound to fall eventually, but who thought No. 9 Iowa would be the team to get it done? The Hawkeyes play slow and are efficient offensively, but they entered the NCAA Tournament on a 3-7 run. Yes, they’ve taken down one giant, but slaying a few more may be asking too much.
Iowa deserves plenty of credit for what it’s accomplished thus far, but this group’s run should be over before too long. The number looks appealing, but it isn’t worth the risk.
Midwest Region
Much like the East, the Midwest has been fairly chalky. Three of the top four seeds remain, and the lone one to fall – No. 3 Virginia – had a weak resume from the jump. Truly, there are only two teams to consider from this region.
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (+310)
Michigan has the shortest odds to win the title, and understandably so. While their win over No. 16 Howard didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know, their 95-72 victory against No. 9 Saint Louis was more of a warning to the rest of the field that this team isn’t here to mess around.
Yaxel Lendeborg has arguably been the best player in college basketball this season, and the Wolverines have a strong supporting cast around him. At their peak, there’s no better team in the nation than Michigan. This might be your last chance to get in at a decent price, too, so consider buying at +310.
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones (+1800)
Iowa State is an interesting case. They’ve suffered some big losses this season – some fairly recently – but they’re also one of the nation’s most complete teams. The Cyclones are as efficient as they come from 3-point range and their defense is elite, as evidenced by their 82-63 win over No. 7 Kentucky.
It’s unclear when Joshua Jefferson will return, though, and while Iowa State survived in the second round without him, it’s fair to wonder if they can keep that going. Until there’s more clarity regarding his timeline for return, I’d stay off the Cyclones.
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (+6000)
Tennessee is turning it on at the right time. It would’ve been easy to crumble against hyped mid-major No. 11 Miami (OH) or No. 3 Virginia, but the Volunteers powered through both opponents to advance to the Sweet 16 for the fourth year in a row.
There’s value in backing Tennessee against No. 2 Iowa State – especially if Joshua Jefferson remains sidelined – but beyond that, there’s little margin for error, and this team is far from perfect. Even at +6000, I can’t recommend a bet on Rick Barnes’ Volunteers.Â
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (+10000)
In their current shape, Alabama may be as weak a No. 4 seed as you’ll find in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, the Crimson Tide rolled through No. 13 Hofstra and an injury-riddled No. 5 Texas Tech, but the absence of Aden Holloway is bound to catch up with this group eventually.
A matchup with No. 1 Michigan is likely the end of the line for the Crimson Tide. Labaron Philon has dazzled as lead guard, but even Alabama’s high-scoring offense can’t offset how many points its porous defense will surrender to the Wolverines. Ignore the +10000 odds and stay away.
In Review
As is the case every year, it’s typically in your best interest to bet on a No. 1 seed. One has already fallen ahead of the Sweet 16, but the other three all have what it takes to cut down the nets in Indianapolis next month.Â
If you’re looking for a sleeper, No. 2 Houston is likely the way to go at +700. With No. 1 Florida out of the picture, it has the easiest path to a Final Four appearance, and the Cougars play a brand of basketball that wins a lot of games this time of year.
Before you place a bet, make sure you shop around. Check out our list of the best March Madness sportsbooks to ensure you get the best price on your NCAA Tournament champion.
