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Expert NFL Picks for Championship Round

The cover for this NFL championship round picks article shows Sam Darnold #14 of the Seattle Seahawks warming up prior to the NFC Divisional Playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers.

The NFL playoffs have reached Championship Sunday with a couple of huge matchups to determine who reaches Super Bowl LX.

We’ll see if the Denver Broncos can shock the New England Patriots with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks will meet in their rubber match after two great games already. We figured out our top NFL predictions.

Let’s look at the most current NFL odds.

NFL Picks Championship Games At-a-Glance

Our NFL picks for the Championship Round expect a defensive battle in Denver, and we know which team we’re backing to win the NFC in Rams vs. Seahawks.

But let’s start in the AFC with a most unusual matchup at quarterback.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (Broncos +5)

Sunday, January 25, 2026 – 03:00 PM ET

This is a classic AFC matchup that’s a rematch of the 2013 and 2015 AFC Championship Games, both won by Denver at home.

However, this is not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady at quarterback. It’s Jarrett Stidham and Drake Maye, leading to a very curious game to predict, with Stidham having not thrown a pass since the 2023 season because of how durable Bo Nix was.

Stidham has thrown for over 200 yards and a touchdown in all four of his NFL starts, but the Patriots know him well as Josh McDaniels coached him in Vegas. Also, the Patriots are playing stellar defense and have held every team since Week 2 under 370 yards and have been even better in the playoffs.

The Broncos went so pass-happy last week with Nix against Buffalo that there’s no way Sean Payton can replicate that with a quarterback so inexperienced.

Denver’s only real hope here is to dominate on defense, which is possible with a pass rush that led the NFL in sacks. Drake Maye has already taken 10 sacks and fumbled six times this postseason, so his line is a mess, and so is his pocket presence at the moment.

Turnovers are the way the Broncos can steal this one.

Still, with Stidham’s lack of experience and the injured weapons the Broncos have going up against that red-hot defense, it’s hard not to see the Patriots win this battle of the teams that had the easiest schedules in 2025.

Expert Pick: Patriots -5 (-110) at BetOnline

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks -2.5)

Sunday, January 25, 2026 – 06:30 PM ET

This NFC West rematch has the potential for greatness.

We’ve seen the Rams intercept Sam Darnold six times, and Matthew Stafford has yet to take a sack against these Seahawks. However, he had his fewest (130) and most (457) passing yards in a game against the Seahawks, so anything is on the table.

But we’re going to back the Seahawks to cover the spread for a few reasons here:

  • Home teams win 67.7% of Conference Championship Games that are rematches from the regular season.
  • The Rams have already allowed five game-winning drives, including one to Seattle, and also gave up a crunch time touchdown in both playoff games on the road.
  • Stafford has not been sharp ever since the finger injury in Carolina (under 50% completions in Chicago).
  • The Rams were under 40% at converting third down in the regular season and under 30% in the postseason – Seattle’s defense is No. 1 on third down.
  • Seattle coach Mike Macdonald is 7-0 in rematches since 2024.

Betting against Sam Darnold in the biggest game of his life is always going to be tempting, but the Rams barely got by the Panthers and Bears. It only gets harder in Seattle against the No. 1 defense. The Seahawks will cover for your NFL picks.

Expert Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (-120) at BetOnline

What We’ve Covered and Next Steps

For our NFL picks Championship Round, our most anticipated game is seeing if the Seahawks can cover the 2.5-point spread in another tight one with the Rams. We also are expecting the Patriots to cover the 5-point road spread against Denver with its backup quarterback.

Timing is everything in sports betting. Injury news can move a line, so always keep up with the latest line movement before placing your NFL picks today.


*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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