For this week’s best NFL picks, we are checking out the NFL player props Divisional Round edition. With four enticing games to choose from, we found our favorite value plays for the weekend’s action, where the weather could be a factor.
NFL Prop Bets Divisional Round At-a-Glance
For this week’s football player props, we are looking at which quarterback will have to throw often in Denver, which quarterback we’re fading from throwing multiple touchdowns in Seattle, and which running back to value in Chicago.
But let’s start with Saturday’s opening game in Denver against Buffalo.
Broncos’ Bo Nix (Over 32.5 Pass Attempts)Â
As Bo Nix seeks his first playoff win, he’ll have to do it against a Buffalo pass defense that is improved from the one he lost to in a 31-7 wild-card game as a rookie.
The Bills have issues with the run, but they have dominated in games against Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and they intercepted Trevor Lawrence twice last week.
Can we really trust Sean Payton to lean on rookie back R.J. Harvey in favor of the pass this weekend?
Nix led the NFL with 612 pass attempts in the regular season. He threw over 32.5 passes in 11-of-17 games. Part of that is he can be inefficient, erratic with his accuracy, and that can drive up the pass attempts.
But we also think the Bills are going to score their share of points, forcing Nix to throw more than he’d like to keep up. Not expecting a ton of big plays from Nix, look for him to finish above 32.5 pass attempts.
Expert Pick: Bo Nix Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-140) at Bovada
Seahawks’ Sam Darnold (Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns)
Fair or not, you should want to see Sam Darnold perform well in a playoff game before you trust him to deliver.
While many criticize the San Francisco defense that is missing its two best players (Nick Bosa and Fred Warner), the fact is the 49ers have twice held the Seahawks to 13 points this season – the only games Seattle scored fewer than 18 points.
Despite finishing 14-3, the Seahawks convert less than 40% of the time on third down, and they struggle in the red zone. Their offense has been boosted the last two months by short fields and return touchdowns.
Even in Week 18, Darnold led the offense to 13 points, misfired in the red zone on a fourth down, and he still hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in eight quarters against the 49ers this year.
Darnold only had one touchdown in his playoff debut against the Rams last year. Banking on him to underperform in the biggest game of his career again, we’re going with under 1.5 passing touchdowns. Plus, even if he plays well, don’t rule out most of Seattle’s touchdowns coming from the running backs on the ground.
Expert Pick: Sam Darnold Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at Bovada
Rams’ Kyren Williams (Over 61.5 Rushing Yards)
Sunday evening in Chicago figures to be one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history, with negative wind chill and a fair amount of wind. Still, the total is 48.5 points as both defenses have struggled while both coaches are sharp offensive minds.
But while many are pointing out Matthew Stafford’s finger injury and his struggles to throw in this cold, let’s capitalize on that by fading the MVP hopeful in favor of his running game, which has been strong all year.
Kyren Williams has gone over 61.5 yards in 13-of-18 games this year, so that’s a great success rate. He also had 94 yards in Chicago last season, and this year, the Bears are 27th against the run.
The Rams used more wide receivers last week, but with the weather change and Chicago’s defense, look for Sean McVay to revert to more 3-tight end sets, play bully ball on the ground, and Williams should have few problems going over 61.5 yards in a game that should be less about the aerial show for both teams in frigid conditions that could even introduce snow showers before the night is through.
Expert Pick: Kyren Williams Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
For our NFL player props Divisional Round, our top pick is for Kyren Williams to have over 61.5 rushing yards against the Bears. We also recommend Bo Nix going over 32.5 pass attempts and Sam Darnold throwing under 1.5 passing touchdowns against the 49ers.
Timing is very important for sports betting success. You can either follow our picks or play other props in the NFL prop bets for the divisional round. For the rest of the NFL playoffs, you can sign up with top-rated sportsbooks and find the best prices for NFL bets.
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