Football doesn’t get any better than the NFL playoffs.
We’ve only got the last two Divisional Round games to consider for this week’s Sunday football bets, but now that the betting public has flooded the marketplace, the Expected Value numbers are going through the roof – especially for the nightcap, featuring two of the biggest brand names on the NFL odds board.
Best Bets for L.A. Rams vs. Chicago
Any of our eight Divisional Round teams could end up winning the Super Bowl this year, but it’s safe to say there will be more betting action on Sunday night’s Rams-Bears matchup than on Houston at New England, or either of Saturday’s games.
These are two of the largest markets in America, even if L.A. is still rebuilding its fan base after welcoming the Rams (13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS) back home from St. Louis 10 years ago. We’ll probably find our best NFL betting picks for Sunday’s action right here.
Divisional Round Sunday Odds: CHI +4 (–108) at Heritage
It’s not often you find the home team with the superior record getting points in the Divisional Round.
However, these are the Bears (12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS), and they are the worst of the remaining eight teams on the NFL odds board, according to their plus-0.03 Expected Points Added per play at nfelo. That’s right in line with 8-9 Baltimore and 6-11 Kansas City.
The Rams are third overall at plus-0.18 EPA per play; they won Super Bowl LVI four years ago with QB Matthew Stafford at the helm, and he’s still slinging it as the –800 MVP favorite at Bookmaker. You can see why they’re the favorites in this matchup, with projected edges approaching 6% EV on both the spread and moneyline as we go to press.
Divisional Round Sunday Picks: Over 48 (–107) at Bovada
Do the computers behind our NFL predictions know they’re playing a night game in January at Soldier Field? Sunday evening forecast calls for temperatures around 13 degrees, feeling like minus-13, with 20-mph winds gusting up to 33 mph and a 55% chance of flurries.
Stafford will be familiar with these conditions from his NFC North years with the Detroit Lions, but the Rams are 1-9 in miserable weather (cold, rain and/or snow) since his arrival, according to Blaine Grisak at the Turf Show Times.
With that in mind, we recommend avoiding either side of the spread or moneyline, and taking advantage of the total – that’s if you’re only going to choose one straight bet for Sunday’s football picks.
The betting public tends to overreact in bad-weather games, and the narrative surrounding Stafford’s abilities in these conditions is probably overblown. Yes, the wind will make it challenging, but light flurries and cold weather don’t affect performance levels as much as people think; that’s the betting logic behind the plus-3.1% EV we’re getting on the Over for this contest.
Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+135) at Bovada
What if we told you this Stafford prop comes with a plus-32.3 EV edge attached? It’s easily the biggest projected edge for Sunday’s matchup, and for this entire week’s batch of NFL player props.
Stafford is famous for rarely leaving the pocket, finishing with zero or negative rushing yards in 12 of his 18 games this year, but the projections have Stafford pegged for 2.567 yards. Don’t treat this as a pure science; it’s just a good sign for sharp bettors that Stafford is more likely to finish in positive territory than the betting public believes.
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
You could treat the Over and that Stafford prop as separate commodities for Sunday’s football bets, or you could put them in a same-game parlay with the Rams moneyline if you’re hoping to get more money down on that high-EV prop without the books capping your action.
That’s less of a concern with the offshore sportsbooks, but check out the reviews here at OddsTrader to see which locations are more sharp-friendly, sign up for the ones that fit your needs, and bet accordingly.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
