For this week’s picks, we have delved into the NFL Super Bowl player props. There are two quarterbacks who might be nervous in their first start, and there are some veteran wide receivers leading the way on both sides, too, making for an interesting matchup.
NFL Prop Bets Super Bowl At-a-Glance
For this week’s football player props, we are looking at which quarterback is going to run for his life (in a good way), which one might throw a pick parade, and which former Super Bowl MVP in this game could have a big impact.
But let’s start with the quarterback who is attempting to become the youngest to win a Super Bowl.
Patriots’ Drake Maye (Over 37.5 Rushing Yards)
It is no exaggeration to say that Drake Maye’s passing efficiency in the postseason is somewhere between 2006 Rex Grossman (Bears) and 2000 Trent Dilfer (Ravens). It’s really been that bad, and the weather hasn’t helped, nor have the defenses he’s played.
And while the weather should be good here, he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense in the Seahawks, who have a great defensive coach in Mike Macdonald.
The biggest game of his life has to be a spot where Maye leaves everything on the field and runs as much as he can. It’s the only thing he’s done well these playoffs, with 141 rushing yards and a touchdown in the three playoff games.
If he doesn’t trust the coverage, he should run to protect himself from a poor offensive line.
Also, the Seahawks have not faced many mobile quarterbacks this year. Their best passers faced were Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy. Maye is a different beast, and watch him take as many scrambling opportunities as he can.
He should be able to clear 37.5 yards here, as he’s shown the ability for big scramble yardage.
Expert Pick: Drake Maye Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Seahawks’ Sam Darnold (Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted)
While Sam Darnold has had a turnover-free postseason so far, let’s acknowledge that his playoff run was against the 49ers and Rams, division rivals he just saw in Weeks 16 and 18, and the playoffs were his third time this year seeing those defenses.
That’s why you could argue Darnold is going to see his strongest defense in many weeks, as the Patriots have been playing great. The schedule helps, but it’s also true they haven’t allowed almost any team to hit 30 points, and their season high in yards allowed was against the Raiders.
The Patriots have two weeks to prepare for Darnold, who led the NFL in turnovers in the regular season. The way he loves to target Jaxon Smith-Njigba so much, look for the Patriots to exploit that and trick him into an interception or two in this one.
As much as he’s improved these last two years, it’s still hard to trust him to get through a Super Bowl run unscathed.
Expert Pick: Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-135) at Bovada
Seahawks’ Cooper Kupp (Over 32.5 Receiving Yards)
Mike Vrabel did not coach directly under Bill Belichick at any point in his career. He just played for him for years in New England, and if he learned anything, it’s that you take away what a team does best.
The Seahawks run their offense through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has 1,200 more receiving yards (1,793 total) than the next closest player on the Seahawks.
That’s why you have to believe the Patriots refuse to let one player beat them. They’ll either double-team JSN, or they’ll ask star corner Christian Gonzalez to shadow him all day, and even get some safety help too to limit his impact. Also, with Milton Williams up front, the Patriots should be able to contain the running game with Kenneth Walker.
Their goal is to make Sam Darnold win this game without a dominant effort from his best receiver. That’s why Cooper Kupp, who had a big NFC Championship Game against his former team, needs to remember he’s the Super Bowl 56 MVP with the Rams and take over this game when he can to make big plays.
He should be able to go over 32.5 yards if the Patriots slow down JSN.
Expert Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bovada
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
For our NFL Super Bowl player props, our favorite pick is for Cooper Kupp to go over 32.5 receiving yards. We also like Drake Maye over 32.5 rushing yards and for Sam Darnold to throw an interception.
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