For this week’s top football predictions, we have NFL picks Week 12 for another strong slate with a few games between teams that should shake up both conference playoff races. Let’s look at the top picks.
NFL Picks Week 12 At-a-Glance
This week’s NFL picks look at the first matchup of the year between the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North, the big one in Kansas City against the Colts coming off a bye week, and the rematch from the season opener between the Eagles and Cowboys.
Let’s start in Green Bay, where the Packers will try to make up for last year’s sweep at the hands of Minnesota.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Packers didn’t win the big games last year against the best teams. At least this season, they’ve defeated Detroit at home in Week 1.
However, one thing the Packers have been bad at doing is covering spreads of 6-plus points. They’re 0-6 ATS in such games, including last week’s 27-20 win over the Giants, where the line was 7.5 most of the week and the Packers needed a 4th-quarter comeback.
Most of the problems are with the Jordan Love-led offense, as the defense, led by Micah Parsons, has been fine outside of the Dallas tie. But with the Packers at home this week, it’s hard not to like them against Minnesota because of how poorly J.J. McCarthy has played.
McCarthy has been intercepted in all 5 games he’s started, including 3 games with multiple picks. He’s thrown for more than 158 yards just once. He usually does nothing in the 1st half of games, so the 1st-half spread for Green Bay may actually be the sharpest call of them all.
But we’re going with the full-game spread and for the Packers (-6.5) to finally get one this year as they shut down the Minnesota offense and Love builds on his great throws last week to lead the offense to a solid number of points at home.
Expert Pick: Packers -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -3.5)
It’s wild to see the Chiefs favored in another big AFC matchup after already losing to the Chargers, Jaguars, Bills, and Broncos this year.
They have no recent history with the Colts, but some of the weirdest losses of Patrick Mahomes’ career have been against Indy, and their defensive coordinator (Lou Anarumo) has been excellent in close 4th quarters at shutting down Mahomes based on his years with the Bengals.
The Colts (8-2) are also coming off their bye week and have that great offense with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor having career years. These are the top 2 offenses in yards per drive as no one moves the ball better.
The Chiefs are very poor at getting pressure without blitzing, and even the blitzes haven’t been that effective.
It’s too close to call with the spread right now, and it’s too hard to trust the Chiefs, who are 0-5 in close games (only winless team). Instead, I think we should trust the top two offenses at moving the ball to both get up there in points, as this could be a 31-28 or at least 27-24 game.
That’s why we like the over 50.5 points as the best bet for this one.
Expert Pick: Colts/Chiefs Over 50.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (Cowboys +3.5)
If you go back to the NFL matchup from opening night, the Eagles won 24-20, while only a field goal was scored after halftime. They also survived that game without Jalen Carter, who was ejected for spitting at Dak Prescott before the 1st snap.
With Carter back (as well as some other key pieces), the Eagles are dominating right now, holding the Packers and Lions to 16 combined points the last 2 weeks.
I know Dak Prescott and the Cowboys looked great on Monday night, but that was the Las Vegas Raiders, one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Eagles know how to deal with the Cowboys:
- Prescott usually plays down in big games
- Jalen Hurts has 1 interception all year
- The Philadelphia offense can easily perk up against that poor Dallas defense that won’t penetrate the line the way it did against the Raiders
We’ll take the Eagles to cover the spread and complete the sweep of Dallas while getting very close to becoming the 1st team since 2004 to repeat as NFC East champions.
Expert Pick: Eagles -3.5 (-105) at BetMGM
Place Your Week 12 NFL Bets Now!
For our NFL picks Week 12, our most anticipated game is the hopeful shootout between the Colts and Chiefs, where we like the over 50.5 points.
We also recommend the Packers to get right at home by covering the spread against J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings, and we’ll take Philadelphia to win by at least 4 points again to sweep the Cowboys.
Timing is so important in sports betting. Lines can move quickly in NFL markets, so you’ll want to make sure you are on top of the movement to get the best lines and odds possible for your favorite NFL picks.
One way to help do that is to download the free OddsTrader app (available for iOS and Android devices), where you can see the current odds for all the top NFL markets.
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