There are many things to consider when you make your NFL picks. Week 13 was easier than usual; while that nasty polar vortex sent swirling winds across most of America, the sharps were taking advantage, pounding the Under to a 7-4 record this past Sunday.
That record includes two of our three expert NFL picks for last week, with the San Francisco 49ers beating the Cleveland Browns 26-8 (Under 35.5 at the close), and the Jacksonville Jaguars putting away the Tennessee Titans 25-3 (Under 42). Reports indicate sharp action on the Under for our NFL picks Week 14 as well. Should we join them?
NFL Picks Week 14 At-a-Glance
As it turns out, our best football bet for Week 14 is on the underdog – but the Under does look tasty, so consider the old underdog-Under parlay if you’re dealing with a sharp-friendly sportsbook.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Sunday, December 7 – 8:20 PM ET
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football is a big one, and it’s crammed full of betting edges for us to exploit. Kansas City (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, Under 8-4) is very much the public team in this contest; Houston (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, Under 8-3-1) has a regional fanbase and the best defense in the NFL by multiple metrics.
The key here for both sides of the underdog-under parlay might be Kansas City’s offense. It’s not bad, but it’s hardly the dominant force we saw in the early years of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes Era. Credit Steve Spagnuolo and the K.C. defense for keeping them competitive – but pound the Texans for value now that C.J. Stroud has returned to quarterback duty.
The initial NFL predictions at OddsTrader have Kansas City winning 21-20, giving Houston a projected 1.6% betting edge as 3.5-point road dogs, jumping to 8.7% at +160 on the moneyline. Under 41.5 checks in with an additional 2.9% edge as we go to press.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Sunday, December 7 – 1:00 PM ET
They’re tied atop the AFC South at 8-4 SU and 7-4-1 ATS, but the Colts (plus-8.0 on the Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference) have performed about three points better than the Jaguars (plus-5.0 SRS), who needed overtime to beat Las Vegas in Week 9 and Arizona in Week 12.
Indianapolis should be an easy call here with a predicted win of 27-22 over the Jags; they’re showing 4.5% Expected Value at -1.5 on the spread and 7.7% EV as -129 moneyline favorites at Caesars. Just stay away from that 47.5-point total, which is negative-EV on both sides.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (+8.5)
Sunday, December 7 – 4:25 PM ET
This one’s all about the Under. Matthew Stafford has struggled in two of his last three games for Los Angeles (Under 6-5-1), helping the Under to a 4-2-1 record since early October.
The Cardinals have the Over at 5-2 since Jacoby Brissett took over at quarterback, but last week’s 20-17 loss to Tampa Bay (Under 45.5) might be more indicative of what’s to come this Sunday against the superior Rams defense. It all adds up to a 5.0% projected edge for Under 49 (-118) at BetMGM, on a predicted score of LA 27, ARZ 18.
Place Your Week 14 NFL Bets Now!
Anytime you bet the Under – or the underdog, for that matter – you should consider waiting until closer to kick-off for a better price. It doesn’t always happen, but the betting public tends to pound the favorites and the Over when the weekend rolls around, and the sportsbooks adjust their NFL lines accordingly.
Our Houston-Kansas City matchup is most likely to follow that pattern, so keep a close watch on OddsTrader’s NFL picks Week 14. This week could generate even bigger betting edges for us as game time approaches.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
