The NBA season is fast approaching. It won’t be long before preseason basketball is back on the TV, and from there, we’ll essentially be mere moments away from opening night.
With that in mind, it’s time to start thinking about who will win the 2026 NBA Finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder made a historic run to the title in 2025, but they were nearly stopped by the underdog Indiana Pacers.
While we don’t know if the 2025-26 season will pack the same drama, we can begin sorting teams into tiers based on our expectations. Anything can happen, of course, but here’s what we can project as the new season gets underway.
Tier One: Top Contenders
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+280)
- Denver Nuggets (+850)
- New York Knicks (+900)
- Houston Rockets (+950)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+1000)
Unsurprisingly, the Thunder top the list of the NBA’s premier title contenders. Oklahoma City went a league-best 68-14 in 2024-25 and only figures to get better this coming season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still just 27, and Jalen Williams is 24. Terrifying.
Between NBA MVP candidates Nikola Jokić and Jalen Brunson, it’s no surprise to see the Nuggets and Knicks here. Denver made more minor tweaks over the summer, while New York has a retooled bench featuring Malcolm Brogdon, Jordan Clarkson, and Guerschon Yabusele.
More surprising is Houston, which traded for superstar forward Kevin Durant in the offseason. The Rockets already earned the West’s No. 2 seed in 2024-25, and with Durant joining their young, threatening core, they could be a force.
Finally, the Cavaliers round out the group after going 64-18 last season. They were upset by the Pacers in the second round and didn’t make many moves over the summer, but they should feel comfortable with where they’re at.
Tier Two: Dark Horse Threats
- Los Angeles Lakers (+1600)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+2000)
- Orlando Magic (+2200)
- LA Clippers (+2800)
- Golden State Warriors (+3000)
The Lakers will draw plenty of attention this season as Luka Dončić enters his first full year with the franchise. The superstar guard underwent a drastic physical transformation over the summer and is said to be in the best shape of his life. Will that translate to a title?
Elsewhere in the West, Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves remain hungry. They reached the Western Conference Finals in 2024-25 but came up short against the Thunder. A big trade could vault them into the top tier of contenders.
The Magic are one of this year’s most intriguing teams. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are certified stars, and the addition of Desmond Bane addresses the team’s biggest weakness: 3-point shooting. Orlando will be anything but an easy out.
The Clippers and Warriors still have the star power to reach the NBA Finals, but the window is almost fully shut. LA’s big three of James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Bradley Beal has potential, and Stephen Curry remains unguardable. These guys just aren’t young anymore.
Tier Three: Playoff Teams
- Atlanta Hawks (+4500)
- Dallas Mavericks (+4500)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+4500)
- Detroit Pistons (+5000)
- San Antonio Spurs (+6600)
- Boston Celtics (+6600)
- Milwaukee Bucks (+8500)
Will any of these teams compete for a title? Not likely, no. But there’s a good mix of up-and-coming talent mixed with “superstars and duct tape” roster construction in this tier. Let’s take a look at the more interesting groups.
The Hawks, for once, are exciting. This is still Trae Young’s team, but he finally has legitimate supplementary talent. Jalen Johnson is a rising star, Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are defensive stalwarts, and Zaccharie Risacher really shined down the stretch of his rookie campaign.
The Mavericks seem to think they have something, and while I don’t quite see the vision, Cooper Flagg makes this a must-watch team in 2025-26. The No. 1 pick did it all in college and is expected to flourish in the pros.
San Antonio needs to stay healthy, but this young core is one of the most promising in the league. Victor Wembanyama continues to elevate his game, and the guard trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and No. 2 pick Dylan Harper has the potential to be lethal.
Jayson Tatum won’t play in 2025-26 after suffering an Achilles injury in the playoffs, but Boston could still make the playoffs behind Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. The Celtics desperately need to address their depth at center, however.
Tier Four: Play-In Potential
- Indiana Pacers (+12500)
- Memphis Grizzlies (+20000)
- Miami Heat (+23000)
- Toronto Raptors (+25000)
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the entirety of the 2025-26 season, the defending Eastern Conference champions find themselves squarely in play-in territory. Expect big things from Bennedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson as the Pacers look ahead to 2027.
The Grizzlies have a solid roster headlined by Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., but losing Bane hurts, and the Western Conference is stacked beyond belief. It’ll be tough for Memphis to rise above so many other contenders.
Miami isn’t so intriguing, but Toronto is. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, Brandon Ingram, Jakob Poeltl, Immanuel Quickley … this roster is full of interesting talent. The Raptors are one team that could absolutely outplay their preseason tier.
Tier Five: Lottery Teams
- New Orleans Pelicans (+50000)
- Phoenix Suns (+50000)
- Chicago Bulls (+75000)
- Portland Trail Blazers (+75000)
- Sacramento Kings (+75000)
- Brooklyn Nets (+100000)
- Charlotte Hornets (+100000)
- Utah Jazz (+100000)
- Washington Wizards (+100000)
There are plenty of familiar faces in this tier, so let’s focus on the newcomers and big moves.
After trading Durant to the Rockets and Beal to the Clippers, the Suns look primed for decline. Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green make for an interesting backcourt, but there’s very little to get excited about here.
The Kings have embraced their status as “Bulls West” and fully committed to Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, which feels like a mistake. It won’t be long before Sacramento tanks its way to another rebuild.
It’s cool to see Damian Lillard return to Portland, but this year is about Scoot Henderson as much as anyone else. The third-year guard needs to prove himself as someone the franchise can rely on. Otherwise, his Trail Blazers tenure will likely come to an end.
Lastly, there’s the Wizards. They won’t be competitive anytime soon, but I’m admittedly warming up to their young core. Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson, Alex Sarr, Cam Whitmore – there are some real pieces here.
