Tennessee and Oklahoma are two undefeated SEC teams. As we enter Week 4 of college football, top sportsbooks heavily favor the Volunteers. Given how much better than Oklahoma they’ve looked, it’s hard to go against them.
That being said, Oklahoma’s defense deserves a lot of respect. With the NCAAF odds and your best bets in mind, the only surefire move for this game is to play the “Under”.
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NCAAF Pick
- Under 57.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
Perception of Tennessee
The perception of Tennessee is extremely positive. This is because people have seen nothing but prolific play from the Volunteers. Through three weeks, the Volunteers have outscored their opponents 191-13.
The only touchdown that they allowed was not even an offensive one. Instead, their quarterback threw a pick-six. My argument is going to base itself off the fact that Oklahoma is nothing like the teams that Tennessee has faced.
The Volunteers have faced an FCS team, a decent ACC squad, and a MAC school.
In order to predict this game accurately, we’re going to have to rely extensively on our conception of Tennessee’s players as we formed it before the season began, because we can’t let their success against scrub teams alter our thoughts about them completely.
Oklahoma, unlike the teams that Tennessee has faced, is a high-profile school, although it has looked shaky on offense.
Nico Iamaleava
Before I talk about Oklahoma’s offense issues, let’s talk about Tennessee’s.
While the Volunteers have dominated their games, their offense has actually given reason to be concerned. I specifically mean their quarterback, Nico Iamaleava.
Iamaleava, against NC State, threw two interceptions. He was not particularly productive with his arm.
It is impossible to back the Vols, especially when they are favored so heavily when their quarterback hasn’t given us a reason to trust him.
As I will describe, the Sooners have a good pass defense. This is also going to be a night-time game between ranked schools. The environment will be raucous, and he won’t be prepared for it.
This game will be his first true road test in his collegiate career. One can, therefore, expect him to be shaky. He was already shaky against NC State, and now he’ll face a much tougher challenge.
Oklahoma’s Pass Defense
The Wolfpack, who Iamaleava was shaky against, have allowed 20 or more points in all of their games so far and largely because opposing quarterbacks – even FCS school West Carolina’s – are able to succeed against them.
NC State’s pass defense ranking doesn’t compare to Oklahoma’s.
Last year, the Sooners ranked among the nation’s best at limiting the opponent’s passer rating.
From that group, they return their top four cornerbacks. Plus, they added a transfer from San Diego State in Dez Malone whose superb coverage skills are allowing him to be an important member of the secondary.
Iamaleava would struggle to pass well against this defense even if he weren’t playing in such a difficult environment.
Tennessee’s Run Game
So far this season, Tennessee has relied largely on the success of running back Dylan Sampson.
While Sampson’s numbers are video game-like, he has also been unchallenged.
The Volunteers have been run-heavy in terms of run-play frequency, and a good rush attack would help Iamaleava out a lot – it’s commonly said that “a running back is a quarterback’s best friend.”
So, it will be critical to consider how Sampson, playing for a team that runs the ninth-most running plays, will perform.
Oklahoma’s Run Defense
The Sooners are well-equipped – unlike any of Tennessee’s opponents so far – to limit Sampson. They own the 17th-best rush defense.
The success of their run defense should surprise nobody considering how strongly they improved in this respect last year.
Under defensive-minded Brent Venables, their head coach who was Clemson’s highly sought after defensive coordinator, they have become one of the nation’s strongest run defenses.
For comparison’s sake, they rank about 60 spots better in run defense than NC State.
Their personnel include defensive tackle Da’Jon Terry – who is actually a transfer from Tennessee – where he earned the label of run-stopper, and Kip Lewis, a linebacker who last year had the second-highest run-stop percentage according to PFF.
Oklahoma’s Offense
Oklahoma’s offense is struggling even though it has faced low-profile competition.
Most notably, the Sooners scored all of 16 points in Week 2 against a soft Houston team that gave up 27 to UNLV. Oklahoma currently ranks 93rd in total offense.
Given its lack of productivity, it is hard to imagine how the Sooners could comfortably score against a Tennessee defense whose dominance does reflect what it is capable of against higher-profile teams.
Oklahoma’s Injury-Induced Issues
The Sooners have dealt with injuries to different wide receivers whom they had hoped to rely on, guys who were productive last year but have failed to rediscover their previous level of effectivity.
Their top four receivers from last year – the leading one is now in the NFL – have combined for all of two receptions so far.
Hence, they are having trouble making use of weapons in the passing game. But they are also struggling to do anything because of their offensive line.
Their offensive line lost five starters in the offseason. Continued injury issues have delayed the new offensive line’s ability to gel together and develop as a unit.
Tennessee’s Defensive Line
On the other side, Tennessee has a monstrous defensive line that is deep and star-studded with excellent talent.
James Pearce Jr., for example, was a first-team All-SEC selection last season thanks to his demonstrated abilities as an edge rusher. The Volunteers have strong players even listed as backups along the defensive line.
These players help explain why the Vols are allowing so few points, as they will likewise shut down Oklahoma’s issue-ridden offense.
Takeaway
The high total posted for this game is uncalled for. It is a reflection of the obsolete perception, etched in people’s minds due to recent years, of each team’s offensive potential. Tennessee’s defense has become much stronger, as has Oklahoma’s.
The Vols this year are limited by a freshman quarterback, as the Sooners are limited by injury-related problems at offensive line and wide receiver.
Tennessee’s defensive line will control the trenches, impeding OU from finding a rhythm, while OU’s excellent run defense and likewise effective secondary will help keep this game low-scoring.
NCAAF Pick: Under 57.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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