While the NFL likes to dominate Thanksgiving, there are still Thursday night college football bets in Week 14, too.
We have a game in the American Conference between Navy and Memphis, a pair of winning teams this year seeking that 9th win. Let’s preview the matchup and give you our top college football bets.
Best Bets for Navy vs. Memphis
For tonight’s NCAAF picks, we’re looking at the Navy Midshipmen (8-2) taking on the Memphis Tigers (8-3). Navy is 6-1 in conference play and is coming off an impressive 41-38 victory over South Florida following a pair of losses to North Texas and Notre Dame.
Memphis has some solid statistics on both sides of the ball, but the Tigers are only 4-3 in conference play with consecutive one-score losses to Tulane (38-32) and East Carolina (31-27) in their last 2 games.
Both teams will have had 12 days to prepare for this one, and it’s the regular-season finale for Memphis.
Thursday Night Odds (Memphis -5.5)
For this Thursday matchup, Memphis opened as a 4.5-point home favorite, and the line has moved to 5.5 at most sportsbooks.
Navy won last year’s matchup, a 56-44 shootout, but the Midshipmen are only 3-7 ATS this season while Memphis is a strong 8-3 ATS team. Navy is also just 2-2 SU on the road, with its two lowest-scoring games (10 and 17 points) coming on the road for that ground-fueled attack.
The total opened at 57.5 points and has gone up a hair to 58.5 points. Both teams certainly thrive with offense, each averaging at least 32.9 points per game this season. The line of 58.5 points has gone over in 4-of-11 games for Memphis and over in 8-of-10 Navy games, so that fact is hard to ignore here.
Thursday Night Pick (Over 58.5 Points)
For this Thursday night prediction, while we’re leaning towards a Memphis cover at home, our favorite pick is for the over 58.5 points to hit. These teams both love to run the ball and do it very well:
- Navy averages 308.2 rushing yards per game (6.4 yards per carry) and has scored at least 32 points in 7-of-10 games this season.
- Memphis averages 192.5 rushing yards per game (5.2 yards per carry) and has scored at least 32 points in every home game this season.
It’s hard to see either defense doing much to slow down the other, especially after the way Navy pulled out a 56-44 win last year against Memphis after returning an interception for a touchdown in the final minute.
We may not get 100 points again, but for your college football picks in Week 14, few games may be as high scoring as this one, which is why we like the over as the top pick.
Navy’s Blake Horvath (Over 121.5 Passing Yards)
For a top player prop in this game, we really like Navy quarterback Blake Horvath to go over 121.5 passing yards. Memphis will have the running game in mind after Horvath burned them last season for a career-high 211 rushing yards to go with 4 touchdown runs in that 56-44 win.
But don’t overlook that Horvath also had 192 passing yards on just 12 attempts with 2 more touchdowns in that game. The 192 yards were his 2nd most as a passer in 2024, and 121.5 passing yards is a line he’s gone over in 5-of-9 games this season.
With Memphis trying to hold him under 200 on the ground this time, look for him to find some mismatches in the pass defense again and hit over 121.5 passing yards in this shootout.
Bet On Thursday Night College Football Now!
For your Thursday college football bets, our most anticipated game is Navy against Memphis, with each team sitting on 8 wins. Our top pick is for the over 58.5 points with Navy quarterback Blake Horvath hitting over 121.5 passing yards to aid his team’s cause.
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