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The NFL exhibition season (because that’s what it really is) used to draw close to full houses and many games were televised, especially in Week 2 and 3 of the four-week campaign. As prices continued to rise, ticket holders began to understand this was an exhibition and nothing more than a full scrimmage in full football attire.
Nonetheless, bettors still wanted in on the action and sharp bettors were able to churn on a profit regularly because there was a simple formula to follow that those paying the closest attention to could follow and make pretty serious cash depending on betting limits.
With the advent of the three-week preseason, the landscape has been altered, and those of us and possibly you are now trying to figure out how to make the adjustments with many of our tools taken away. Here is what changed and helpful hints to try to turn mechanics back in the bettors’ favor.
Coaches Told You What Would Occur, Now They Are More Guarded
For years, football bettors could search team websites, starting the Monday or Tuesday before the upcoming preseason contest and the head coach or position coaches would tell who is playing and who’s not.
In particular, you wanted to know about the quarterback rotations and other first-teamers who would take the field and sometimes the coach might even be specific about the number of drives in a game they would play.
Top-rated sportsbooks heard the same information and would set their numbers accordingly, the playing field was more even than most realized.
Starting around 2015 the new cast of head coaches were turning into Bill Belichick-mode and releasing less info to the media. The blame went both ways, as some in the media were deemed too critical, yet the coaches were becoming more paranoid. That wasn’t every team and head coach, nevertheless, there was approximately a 50 percent decline in available game information.
This Led to the Next Level of Misinformation
What followed next after COVID-19 was deception from coaches.
To be clear, head coaches have no responsibility to pander to those betting on football. But when a coach stands in front of the microphone and says the backup quarterback will play the first half and the remaining QBs in camp will split time in the second half, many people, like bettors, handicappers, and oddsmakers have to make decisions on what is being said.
The game starts and it turns out one quarterback plays the entire contest, which affects the outcome negatively or positively depending on the side you choose, you feel unnecessarily deceived. Like almost anything someone says today, there is a – Buyer Beware – element to their words, which falls into something similar to an NBA star player benched an hour before a contest for no obvious reason.
These can be hard lessons.
The Biggest Change Is the Reduction of Games
With teams and coaches becoming more sly, the one aspect that every football bettor could count on was Week 3 of the four-game preseason, which was the dress rehearsal for the regular season. With rare exceptions, the first-team offense and defense would play two quarters and possibly longer as coaches wanted to see what they had before Week 1 of the regular season.
The addition of a 17-game campaign meant one less preseason game. That changed the coaches thinking on “dress rehearsals”. Teams today could do it in Week 2 or 3 now. That is largely dependent on how the camp has gone and what all team coaches think from an input perspective.
If a team has looked sharp and focused, Week 2 might make more sense and they can have players fresher for when the new season starts. Also, the extra game diminishes the importance of the first two September contests. Everyone would like to be at 2-0 and nobody at 0-2, but if you figured out adjustments to make moving forward and have a 1-1 record, using that time is more useful in September than in August.
What Can an NFL Bettor Do?
The truth is not much, other than working harder if you like to bet on the NFL in August. You still need to find the QB rotations, look for team information, know what coaches look to win more in the preseason and determine those that could care less about winning.
Invariably, the best information wins. If you find the right intel, you feel you can trust, that is your best option in trying to beat the books.
