We’ve got plenty of action in the MLB today. While many afternoon games are on the slate, I decided to look at the later portion and selected three player props I’m confident in tonight.
Picks Summary
- • Ke’Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Bet365
- • Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Hits (+105) at BetRivers
- • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) at BetRivers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
The Royals will pitch left-hander Angel Zerpa to begin the game. He’s only thrown about 45 pitches per start. Therefore, he won’t be in the game for an extended period. But he’ll still likely face the Pittsburgh order more than once.
Zerpa has allowed a .283 ISO and wOBA of .442 to his last 61 righties. He’s given up 32.6% of fly balls and has only induced 37.2% of ground balls.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Ke’Bryan Hayes of the Pirates. Hayes has hit a .406 ISO and wOBA of .511 against his last 34 lefties.
Hayes has hit 33.3% of fly balls and 33.3% of line drives against lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also hit over 59% of hard contact and has limited ground balls to below 41%.
Over the last month, Hayes has a BABIP of .417 against lefties. That means it’s a hit about 42% of the time that Hayes puts the ball in play against the lefty. Meanwhile, Hayes has also hit an 11.1% barrel percentage against lefties.
With Hayes leading off for the Pirates, I’d imagine he’ll get at least two opportunities against Zerpa. He’ll take advantage of those opportunities.
Take Hayes to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game.
MLB Pick: Ke’Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) at Bet365
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Kyle Freeland will take the hill for the Rockies in Coors Field tonight. He’s a left-handed pitcher, getting clobbered by right-handed hitters.
Freeland has allowed a .310 ISO and wOBA of .434 to his last 92 righties. He’s also given up a .235 ISO and wOBA of .388 to 452 righties this season. The trend has continued throughout the year.
Tonight, he’ll take on Austin Riley, a right-handed batter, hitting a .240 ISO and wOBA of .415 against his last 28 lefties. Riley has limited strikeouts to under 18%. He’s also kept ground balls to 35% over the last 30 days. On top of that, he’s hit a 60% hard contact rate against lefties and has smacked 25% of line drives against lefties.
Meanwhile, Freeland has allowed 61.6% of hard contact to righties. He’s also given up over 30% of line drives and nearly 29% of fly balls to righties in the last 30 days.
The Braves earned plenty of hits last night but only scored three runs. Look for them to capitalize on those hits tonight.
Austin Riley should get at least five at-bats, if not more, tonight. I’d like to think he could earn two hits in five or six plate appearances against the Rockies’ bullpen and Freeland.
Let’s take Riley to earn at least two hits in tonight’s game.
MLB Pick: Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Hits (+105) at BetRivers
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, August 30, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers are thin in the starting rotation. Therefore, they’ll pitch Ryan Pepiot for tonight’s game.
Pepiot has a lot of potential. But he hasn’t been in the Majors much this year. He’s pitched against 34 batters and has thrown about 75.5 pitches per start since getting the call with the Dodgers. However, his first 15 righties have hit a .308 ISO and wOBA of .378 against Pepiot.
The Diamondbacks have slumped against righties. They’re starting to fall out of contention in the National League after leading the NL West earlier in the season.
However, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is one of two players consistently hitting against righties. He’s smashed a .323 ISO and wOBA of .426 against his last 70 righties.
Pepiot has given up 66.7% of hard contact to righties and has allowed 50% of line drives when the ball is put into play by righties.
As long as Gurriel can make contact, I’ve got him earning at least two total bases in tonight’s game against the Dodgers.
MLB Pick: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) at BetRivers
