It’s finally September. The MLB is about to get crazy! Here are three player props to consider for tonight’s portion of the MLB schedule.
Picks Summary
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Hyun Jin Ryu Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155) at BetRivers
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103) at BetRivers
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
James Paxton will take the hill for the Red Sox tonight. The left-handed pitcher has watched his strikeouts fall from 25.2% on the season to 17.6% in the last month.
Paxton has watched his last 92 righties hit a .321 ISO and wOBA of .434. Those righties have also hit 28.8% of fly balls and 43.9% of hard contact against Paxton over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a .294 ISO and wOBA of .378 against his last 17 lefties. The right-handed phenom has become one of baseball’s best hitters.
He’s smacked 35.7% of fly balls and line drives and has hit 71% of hard contact against lefties over the last month.
Witt Jr. has kept his ground ball rate low and has a BABIP of .308, which is respectable but could be better with the type of balls he’s hitting.
Let’s take Witt Jr. to add at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Hyun Jin Ryu will get another start with the Blue Jays. The left-hander has only thrown 72.75 pitches per start, but he’s building back up since his surgery as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
Ryu has struck out 23% of batters and 24.6% of righties over the last month.
He’ll likely face a Colorado lineup with seven righties in it. This projected lineup has also hit .076 ISO and wOBA of .195 against lefties over the last month.
Ryu has held a .116 ISO and wOBA of .201 against his last 74 batters. Therefore, it’s likely that Ryu goes deep and has success.
The projected lineup for the Rockies has struck out 28.7% of the time against lefties. They’ve only got two batters striking out below 23.8%. Colorado also has five batters striking out at least 31.4% of the time against lefties.
Ryu has a lot of targets and figures to have his deepest outing of the season this year. The Rockies rarely walk, rarely hit and strike out at a ridiculous pace against lefties.
Let’s take Ryu to earn four strikeouts tonight. You can even think about a latter with Ryu, which means you can potentially back him to five or six strikeouts at higher betting odds.
MLB Pick: Hyun Jin Ryu Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155) at BetRivers
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, September 1, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
It’s Shohei’s world, and we’re just living in it. Shohei Ohtani has hit a .261 ISO and wOBA of .366 against his last 25 lefties despite being a left-handed batter.
He’ll face J.P. Sears of the Athletics, who has watched his last 23 lefties hit a .474 ISO and wOBA of .543.
Ohtani has allowed a .253 ISO and wOBA of .398 to 112 lefties this season. He’s been a trend. He’s terrible against lefties.
Sears has only induced 26.7% of grounders against lefties. He’s also allowed 26.7% of fly balls and has watched lefties hit over 33% of line drives.
Beyond that, Sears has given up 53.3% of hard contact to lefties and has allowed a .429 BABIP. That’s a bit high of a BABIP and could go down. But it’s also as high as it is because he’s allowing so much hard contact with balls in the air.
Meanwhile, Ohtani has hit a 55.6% hard contact rate against lefties over the last month. He’s also smacked a barrel percentage of 16.7% against lefties.
Ohtani isn’t nearly as good against lefties as righties. But he’ll be able to pull any inside pitch down the line in right field. That’s his typical approach against left-handed batters, and it’s worked.
Take Ohtani to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s matchup against the Athletics.
MLB Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103) at BetRivers
