Knicks vs. Cavaliers: Knicks +5.5 (-101) at SBK
We’re not afraid to stand up to the computers. Sports betting may be all about projections these days, and basketball does lend itself somewhat to advanced metrics, thanks to all those points on the scoreboard – but you still have to take these numbers with a grain of salt.
For example, we know the computers at OddsTrader are a bit generous with their points. All four of Saturday’s first-round NBA games are projected to go Over by considerable amounts, especially the game between the No. 5 New York Knicks and No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers.
There’s a 215.5-point total on the NBA odds board at SugarHouse as we go to press, but the OT computers have Cleveland winning 116-114, which adds up to 130 if we’re doing the math correctly. That’s a gigantic 14.5-point gap between the projections and the total, enough to fire copious sums of money at.
Don’t do it. Instead, take the Knicks for a single unit as 5.5-point road dogs at SBK. They’re the only underdogs singled out by these computer picks, which makes them the most likely of the four to cash in.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Can the Knicks Beat Cleveland?
Absolutely. They’ve already done it three times this year, going 3-1 SU and ATS during their regular-season series – New York sweeping the last three games as small underdogs.
As you might expect given their seeding, there’s only a small difference in talent level between these two Eastern Conference teams. Cleveland finished with the better record at 51-31 (42-36-4 ATS), four games ahead of 47-35 New York (44-34-4 ATS).
Play With the Computer
That 2-point projected winning margin for Cleveland is rather tight, though. If we assume the computers are overdoing it with the points, we’d normally expect the projections to lean too hard on the favorites, given the larger margins of victory the computers are cranking out.
That’s definitely the case with the Philadelphia 76ers. They’re projected to beat the Brooklyn Nets 119-108, blowing out both the 8.5-point spread and the 214.5-point total at Caesars Sportsbook.
So why haven’t the computers done the same with Cleveland? They must have picked up on something, which gives us reason to be a bit more bullish on New York than the Nets and the remaining underdogs this Saturday.
We’re guessing it’s the recent results. Some computer models weigh those results more heavily than others, creating projections that tend to be a bit more toward the extreme. Larger sample sizes lead to more stable projections, but they can also overlook important realities on the ground.
What About Julius Randle?
He’s one of those realities. The Knicks out-rebounded Cleveland in all four of their regular-season games, with Julius Randle (10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes) returning to All-Star form this year. However, Jarrett Allen (10.8 rebounds/36) was absent for two of those games, and Randle is iffy to play Saturday after spraining his left ankle in late March.
The good news for Knicks fans is that Randle was able to practice Tuesday, although as a non-contact participant. We’re guessing he plays, and with center Mitch Robinson (12.6 rebounds/36) healthy for a change, New York’s dominance on the boards should continue despite Allen’s return for Cleveland.
What About Kevin Love?
Ah, you remembered. Love played a key role in Cleveland’s title win back in 2016, and he continued to provide yeoman service off the bench in recent years – until he was bought out in mid-February and signed with the Miami Heat for one more shot at a ring.
On the surface, the Cavs haven’t missed much since Love left town but look at their recent record: 5-3 SU and 3-4-1 ATS since March 23. That includes a 130-116 loss to the Knicks (+3 away) on February 28, a game that Randle and Allen both sat out.
Here’s what Love did in those other three games against New York:
- October 30: 29 points, eight rebounds in 22:29
- December 4: eight points, seven rebounds in 22:25
- January 24: zero points, zero rebounds in 12:05
As Love’s role diminished during the regular season, so did Cleveland’s advantage over the Knicks. They did replace some of that shooting by picking up 3-and-D wing Danny Green off the waiver wire, but Green doesn’t provide the same rebounding as Love, and has only played limited minutes since his return from last year’s torn knee ligaments. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
