It’s the penultimate week of the 2022 NFL regular season. Hard to believe we’ve already arrived at Week 17, but here we are with a record of 31-16-1 after our Week 16 Best Bets went 1-2.
It should have been 2-1; the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants delivered a bad beat by turning a 13-10 New York lead at the end of three quarters into a 27-24 win (Over 48) for Minnesota.
The Vikings might mess up our next batch of NFL picks, too. Profit margins are getting a bit smaller as the regular season winds down, but if you’re willing to give the Under another shot, Sunday’s game at Lambeau Field is asking for at least one betting unit of your bankroll – maybe even as many as three.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field
The logic for this Under pick is much the same as it was last week for Minnesota, but the weather will be playing a bigger role this time, even if it won’t be a full-on winter wonderland in Green Bay.
Kirk Cousins: King of Mid
The Vikings (Over 10-5) have no business being 12-3 right now. They’ve only outscored their opponents by a grand total of five points across 15 games; even worse, according to the Estimated Wins numbers at Football Reference, Minnesota “should” be 6-9.
Kirk Cousins is a big reason why. He’s not awful by any means, but Cousins only ranks No. 17 in passing DVOA, two spots ahead of struggling Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Neither of these gentlemen can be accused of being dual-threat quarterbacks, either.
Sadly for us, the Packers (Under 8-7) don’t have much value as 3.5-point home faves despite their recent three-game SU and ATS winning streak. But the Under looks good here given how meh both of these offenses are.
We’d be even more excited about the Under if the weather conditions were different. Sunday’s forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies over Lambeau and temperatures in the mid-30s, with maybe some light breezes. Has the betting public deflated this 48.5-point total on the NFL odds board at FanDuel? Not enough to switch our football picks, at least according to the projections we’re looking at.
NFL Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) at FanDuel
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
We don’t get to recommend favorites too often in this space, but the Eagles are a special case with a special backup quarterback in their arsenal.
Mustache Rides in Philly
Gardner Minshew III figures to be under center for Philadelphia (13-2 SU, 8-7 ATS) this Sunday in place of Jalen Hurts, who is officially listed as questionable with a sprained SC joint in his shoulder. Eagles fans are understandably concerned after Minshew led them to a 40-34 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week as 4-point road dogs.
That concern is a bit overblown. According to the total DYAR stats at Football Outsiders, Minshew had the second-best game of all Week 16 quarterbacks. Hurts offers more overall value with his feet as well as his arm, but Minshew and his mustache have proven time and time again that they can hang at this level.
The Saints (6-9 SU and ATS) are on the verge of elimination, they’re heading to Philly to play outdoors at The Linc, and they’re projected by FiveThirtyEight to lose this game by eight points. Sounds about right.
NFL Pick: Eagles -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbooks
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, January 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium
We wrap up with a game that finally fits the Over template we’ve been looking for with our late-season NFL picks – assuming the weather forecast holds up for us.
Teddy or Tua?
The weather in Foxborough should be much the same as it is in Philadelphia, with temperatures in the mid-50s and light rain in the morning that shouldn’t cause us too many problems Sunday afternoon – definitely not the kind of cold-weather game bettors might be expecting for Week 17.
Casual fans also seem to have thrown Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa under the bus. Snubbed for a Pro Bowl berth, Tagovailoa had some issues during last week’s 28-20 loss to Green Bay (Under 48.5), but it turns out he was concussed at some point. Again.
Chances are Teddy Bridgewater gets the start instead this week, but like Minshew, Bridgewater has proven himself capable of stepping in and putting points on the board. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Over 41.5 (-108) at SBK
