NCAAF Pick: North Carolina Over 8 Wins (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
The North Carolina Tar Heels earned nine wins last season. Will they be able to replicate that win total this season?
North Carolina Tar Heels Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels are headed into their 5th season with Mack Brown as head coach. Brown is just 26 wins away from 300 in his career. He’s been coaching for 34 years. This season will be his 35th.
The Tar Heels won nine games last year and finished 6-2 in the ACC. They’ll be competitive against top-tier ACC teams like Clemson and Florida State.
The Tar Heels were even in the ACC Championship game but got rocked by Clemson, 39-10. The Tar Heels also took a whooping from Oregon in the Holiday Bowl.
But don’t be shocked if North Carolina is better than last year’s team. The defense probably can’t be any worse. You’d have to imagine that the Tar Heels improved that side of the ball for this upcoming season.
Let’s break it down. Here’s a look at the 2023 North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Offense
The Tar Heels return Drake Maye as quarterback. He’s a Heisman Trophy hopeful who could be a first-round selection in the next NFL Draft.
Maye threw for 4,321 yards and added 38 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. The Tar Heels continue to find success with quarterbacks. You can thank Chip Lindsey, who was the quarterback coach last year. He’ll be the offensive coordinator for the Tar Heels this season.
I love that familiarity aspect. The whole offense won’t change with Lindsey as the offensive coordinator.
Josh Downs was the team’s best receiver last year. He’s with the Colts now, but the Tar Heels still have Bryson Nesbit at tight end and Devontez Walker from Kent State. Walker added 58 passes for 931 yards and 11 touchdowns last season.
North Carolina also added Nate McCollum from Georgia Tech. He added 60 receptions a year ago.
The Tar Heels can make any receiver look good, especially with Maye at quarterback. The run game won’t be as elite, but British Brooks should return from a leg injury last year. He’ll rush with Elijah Green, who added 558 yards and eight scores last season.
The Defense
The offense will score points. If we’re honest, the defense needs to get a couple of stops per game. Sometimes they couldn’t even do that last season.
This defense allowed 437 yards and 31 points per game. They had no pass rush and could never get off the field on third downs.
They’ll bring in Alijah Huzzie from East Tennessee State and Armani Chatman from Virginia Tech to play cornerback. Huzzie has 12 interceptions in four seasons. Meanwhile, Chatman is another veteran who should make an impact, along with Antavious Lane, who is from Georgia State and had 11 interceptions in three seasons.
Meanwhile, upfront, the defense has experience. Now they just need to make plays. Cedric Gray should lead the team. He’s highly regarded as one of the best linebackers in the country after adding 146 tackles last season. There’s also Power Echols, who will likely add another 100-tackle season this year.
North Carolina’s defensive backs should be acceptable. But the defense needs to add more pressure on the quarterback for the Tar Heels to earn some interceptions and pass breakups.
North Carolina Win Total
The Tar Heels won’t have an easy schedule this year. The season will begin with a road matchup against South Carolina. The Gamecocks developed towards the end of last year and will likely knock off North Carolina in Game 1.
However, the Tar Heels should earn their first win against Appalachian State. They’ll also take on Minnesota, but this game is at home, and I think North Carolina’s offense can do enough in this game.
At 2-1, North Carolina’s road game against Pittsburgh should be another win. Then they’ll take on Syracuse and Miami (FL) at home. Give me North Carolina in both of those games.
They’d be 5-1 before facing Virginia. That’s another win. They’ll also get Georgia Tech on the road. Mark that as a win too.
North Carolina would then face an FCS opponent in Campbell. Give North Carolina seven wins. They’ll also have Duke at home. That’s eight wins.
However, UNC will likely lose to Clemson but sneak by North Carolina State on the road to earn nine wins.
Give me North Carolina’s over with its win total.
NCAAF Pick: North Carolina Over 8 Wins (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
