Saturday’s Top Pick
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-135) at FanDuel
While it was a rather slow Friday around Major League Baseball, every team is scheduled to play on April Fools’ Day/Saturday – weather permitting – with three games nationally televised.
We have leans on three of 15 matchups with help from the computer picks from OddsTrader. How about some cross-sport parlays with the Final Four?
Pick Summary
- Giants vs. Yankees: Yankees ML (-135)
- Angels vs. Athletics: Under 8 (-110)
- Twins vs. Royals: Twins ML (-150)
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees
Saturday, April 01, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The San Francisco Giants are going to be pretty awful this season. Their starting pitching is solid but their lineup is really bad after the team missed out on luring Yankees star and 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge to return home in free agency and then let backup plan Carlos Correa walk away when the team didn’t like what it saw on his physical.
Granted, it was against AL Cy Young betting favorite Gerrit Cole on Thursday for six innings, but the Giants managed just three hits with 16 strikeouts in the 5-0 loss to New York. Judge, who set the AL record with 62 homers last season, was set at over-under 45.5 this year.
Even though Judge homered in his first at-bat Thursday, this writer still leans under. He didn’t walk once, but teams are going to stop pitching to him unless they have to (i.e. guys on base).
Cobb On the Mound
Right-hander Alex Cobb is scheduled on the bump here for the Giants. He was 7-8 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.30 WHIP last year but brutal in 12 road starts with a 5.20 ERA and .303 opponents’ batting average. Judge is 2-for-10 with a homer off him career.
Due to injuries to starting pitchers Frankie Montas, Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino, it will be reliever Clarke Schmidt starting for the Bombers and he probably won’t get to five innings to potentially earn a win. Schmidt built his pitch count up to 66 in his final spring outing. The 27-year-old was 5-5 with a 3.12 ERA last year. Good pitcher, and New York will have its full bullpen ready behind him.
The computer favors the Yankees 4.8-4.4, but count me surprised if the Giants get to four runs.
- Giants are 6-16 in their last 22 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.
- Yankees are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague home games.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-135) at FanDuel
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Saturday, April 01, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
It’s going to be a REALLY long baseball season in the San Francisco Bay Area because even as bad as the Giants might be offensively, the A’s are that much worse and easily have the least-talented roster in the majors. Their payroll of about $33.7 million is less than the Mets will pay just in luxury taxes. And the A’s owner doesn’t care because he wants to move the team to Las Vegas, which is when he’ll spend.
The A’s actually upset Shohei Ohtani and the Angels on the MLB odds in Thursday’s opener but only scored two runs and had six hits. Get used to that. Frankly, bet under A’s totals all season and you probably will win plenty. That the Halos managed only one run is a bit worrisome – Ohtani, who dominated on the mound, is likely to leave in free agency next winter (for the Dodgers?) if LA doesn’t finally make the playoffs this year. The Angels managed five hits against a total of five Oakland pitchers.
Supporting Sandoval?
Lefty Patrick Sandoval takes the hill Saturday for the Angels, and he was 6-9 with 2.91 ERA last year, by far his best season although obviously he didn’t get much run support. In two World Baseball Classic starts last month for Mexico, he went 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA. In eight career starts vs. the A’s, he has a 1.84 ERA.
It will be the MLB debut of A’s right-hander Shintaro Fujinami. He was 3-5 with a 3.38 ERA last year in Japan and 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in five starts this spring, holding the opposition to a .121 batting average. The computer has a total of 7.4 runs being scored.
- Under is 8-2 in Angels last 10 overall.
- Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 games following an off day.
- Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Oakland.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at FanDuel
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, April 01, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Kansas City has some good young hitters led by Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino, but that KC lineup was completely inept Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Twins. It was the first time in franchise history the Royals were shutout at home on Opening Day and their two hits were the fewest on Opening Day in franchise history regardless of location. It was the fifth Twins Opening Day shutout in team history.
Before the game, veteran catcher Salvador Perez was named the fourth captain in Royals history, joining Mike Sweeney (2003-07), George Brett (1989-93) and Frank White (1989-90) as the only players to wear a “C” on their chest in the team’s 55-year history. Perez had one of the two hits.
Gray Bump
Sonny Gray is scheduled on the bump here for Minnesota. He went 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts last year and made three starts vs. the Royals, going 3-0, 0.47 ERA (19.0 IP, 1 ER) with two walks and 22 strikeouts. In his career at Kauffman Stadium, Gray is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in 28 innings. No Royals have good hitting splits off him. Perez is 4-for-25.
The Royals signed righty Jordan Lyles to a two-year deal in free agency this past winter. Last year in Baltimore he was 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA and has a 5.10 ERA pitching for seven teams in his 12-year career. Lyles is the definition of a journeyman. This spring, he had a concerning 10 walks in 15.1 innings. Lyles has made three career starts against Minnesota, posting a 3.57 ERA.
The computer has the Twins prevailing 4.5-3.6.
- Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 games following an off day.
- Twins are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
- Royals are 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-150) at FanDuel
