NFL Pick: Number 2 Overall Pick – Tyree Wilson (+275) at Bet365
- Number 2 Overall Pick – Tyree Wilson (+275)
- Number 3 Overall Pick – Will Anderson Jr. (+250)
- Anthony Richardson Draft Position – Over 7.5 (-120)
- Exact Position of Team First Draft Pick – Tennessee Titans, Quarterback (+120)
- Exact Position of Team First Draft Pick – New York Giants, Wide Receiver (+180)
- First Tight End Drafted – Dalton Kincaid (+150)
We have finally made it to the 2023 NFL Draft, which kicks off tonight in Kansas City. The first round expects to be as unpredictable as any we have seen with heavy rumors swirling about what the Texans and Cardinals will do with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks.
Those picks will set off a huge butterfly effect for how the rest of the night pans out. With hours remaining until the first pick is in, we are going over our last-minute value bets that are worth a look at top-rated sportsbooks like Bet365.
Final Call: Top 3 Picks
At the very least, we feel very confident that Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is going to be the No. 1 pick by the Carolina Panthers, who traded up from No. 9 with the Chicago Bears last month.
Things get much more interesting at No. 2 with Houston.
The Texans have been linked to everyone from C.J. Stroud to Will Anderson to Tyree Wilson to Will Levis. There has also been speculation that they would trade the pick to a team who wants to make sure they can get their quarterback before the Colts pick at No. 4. But one of those teams may be Tennessee, so would the Texans really want to trade with a division rival?
But you know we are living in the era of misinformation (fake news) when a report that the Arizona quarterback wants the Cardinals to draft a left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. has shifted the odds of Johnson going No. 3. Murray has been clamoring for an offensive lineman for years, and the team, which has new leadership this year, has consistently ignored him.
Panthers, Texans, and Cardinals Draft Pick
The Cardinals could very well draft Will Anderson as many have expected, or they could trade that pick to a team wanting to jump directly ahead of the Colts, who certainly need a quarterback more than most.
But we are going to call the bluff of Houston and Arizona with our top three picks:
- No. 1: Panthers draft Bryce Young as expected.
- No. 2: Texans are serious about a bypassing quarterback, which they will come back later for, and they take Tyree Wilson for DeMeco Ryans’ new-look defense.
- No. 3: The Cardinals stay put and take Will Anderson, the Alabama edge rusher many have believed throughout this process is the best defender available.
Let the rest of the teams bicker over Stroud and Levis. This is our final stab at the top three.
NFL Pick: Number 2 Overall Pick – Tyree Wilson (+275) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Number 3 Overall Pick – Will Anderson Jr. (+250) at Bet365
What to Do With Anthony Richardson?
Things are moving fast before the draft, and Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is another polarizing prospect in this class. He was consistently listed with an Over/Under draft position of 4.5, but that suddenly changed this week to 7.5.
Given we just gave the Texans and Cardinals two defenders, that means the Colts will have their pick of the second quarterback with the No. 4 pick. For as much sense as Richardson makes for that offense, it just feels like the team will be glad to have the choices of C.J. Stroud and Will Levis available to them. Richardson is not the pick for Indy.
That leaves three teams on the clock before his Over/Under hits: No. 5 Seattle, No. 6 Detroit, and No. 7 Las Vegas. All three teams have a quarterback under contract for now with Geno Smith, Jared Goff, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Those are new investments for 2023 for the Seahawks and Raiders, so they seem less likely to take a quarterback like Richardson here.
With the change in his Over/Under, it does stand to reason that Richardson could slide to that No. 11 and No. 12 range, leaving the Texans and Titans to battle it out for him. A trade-up with No. 10 Philadelphia could ultimately decide that battle between the AFC South teams hungry for a quarterback. Even the Falcons (No. 8) and Bears (No. 9) could be trade partners if they are not enamored with any one player.
At the end of the day, Richardson feels like a good value to take Over 7.5 in this draft filled with uncertainty at quarterback.
NFL Pick: Anthony Richardson Draft Position – Over 7.5 (-120) at Bet365
Titans a Lock for Quarterback?
In a report from ESPN’s Dianna Russini, the Titans are willing to do everything they can to draft a quarterback in the first round Thursday night. That could mean anyone from Anthony Richardson to C.J. Stroud to Will Levis. Heck, maybe even Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker is on their radar.
You never know what to believe this time of year, but the Titans obviously have a need here with Ryan Tannehill currently one of the oldest starting quarterbacks in the AFC, his long injury history, his poor playoff performances, and the fact that the Titans just need someone to reignite that team for long-term success.
The Titans also could have extra incentive to target a quarterback with the Colts and Texans expected to add one in the division, and the Jaguars obviously won the AFC South last year with Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft.
But the Titans do have a need at the offensive line with some long-time veterans being let go, so that is still the odds-on favorite (+100) for their first draft pick. However, there is good value with quarterback too (+120), so we are going with the Titans to make quarterback the first position they draft in 2023.
NFL Pick: Exact Position of Team First Draft Pick – Tennessee Titans, Quarterback (+120) at Bet365
Giants Get Daniel Jones Help
Another value pick to look at is the Giants drafting a wide receiver with their first pick. The betting favorite is cornerback (+125) but the wide receiver is right behind it at +180 odds.
But the Giants paid Daniel Jones this offseason, so they need to do something about the terrible luck he has had at the wide receiver position. They already brought in Darren Waller to be his new tight end. But when it comes to wideouts, Jones has dealt with multiple big injuries to Sterling Shepard. Kenny Golladay was a free-agent bust from Detroit. Kadarius Toney was always injured and traded to Kansas City.
If the Giants are convinced Jones is the guy for the long term, then they need to invest in pieces around him to bring out more of his game. Head coach Brian Daboll was there in Buffalo to develop Josh Allen, but he also knows how important it was to acquire Stefon Diggs in a trade in 2020.
The Giants hold the No. 25 pick, which could put them in a prime position to land someone like Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, or even Jalin Hyatt. Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba will likely be off the board by the time the Giants pick, but they still have options here.
NFL Pick: Exact Position of Team First Draft Pick – New York Giants, Wide Receiver (+180) at Bet365
Dalton Kincaid – First Tight End?
The battle for the first tight end off the board has always been between Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid. The betting favorite is Mayer (-250) but Kincaid (+150) continues to gain some steam.
Mayer has the prestige of playing at Notre Dame, which has produced some successful tight ends in the past. But Kincaid may have the bigger upside in the NFL with the ability to stretch the field and score touchdowns.
There is a good chance both tight ends go in the first round with some teams like the Cowboys and Packers both interested. The Cowboys lost Dalton Schultz, so there is a hole in their offense. The Packers never got huge production out of tight ends since Aaron Rodgers was more of a wide-receiver passer, but the Rodgers era is officially over.
Oddly enough, the Packers moving up to the No. 13 pick in that swap with the Jets for the Rodgers trade could help them land someone like Kincaid if they want to give their offense a new dimension. In fact, several mocks have linked Kincaid to the Packers in recent weeks.
This feels like a good value pick with Green Bay hopefully being the team to pull the trigger on Kincaid. It would be a humorous pick too given that the Packers have not drafted a tight end, wide receiver, or running back in the first round since 2002 – the longest drought in the NFL by a full decade.
NFL Pick: First Tight End Drafted – Dalton Kincaid (+150) at Bet365