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2023 Stanley Cup Finals Analysis, Odds and Pick

Matthew Tkachuk Florida Panthers Carolina Hurricanes
Matthew Tkachuk 19 of the Florida Panthers celebrates with teammates after scoring the game winning goal against the Carolina Hurricanes during the third period in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs Bruce BennettGetty ImagesAFP

NHL Pick: Panthers Stanley Cup Winner (+110) at BetMGM


The 2023 Stanley Cup finalists have officially been named as the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers, two teams who have both been to the finals once and came away as second-best. But this year one of them is guaranteed to get their hands on the elusive Stanley Cup.

Which team will it be and why have the sportsbooks made the Golden Knights -130 favorites over an equally strong Florida Panthers team?


2023 Stanley Cup Finals Odds



*Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of May 30, 2023.


Vegas Golden Knights-130
Florida Panthers+110

Vegas Tipped as Favorites

The sportsbooks have set the odds for the Stanley Cup finals with the Golden Knights as low as -130 and the Florida Panthers best priced up at +110 with BetMGM.

With that being said, don’t let the underdog label fool you. The Florida Panthers have knocked out all three Stanley Cup favorites this post-season.

First disposing of the Boston Bruins, then the Toronto Maple Leafs and finally the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Golden Knights’ route to the final saw them dispose of strong opposition themselves, taking down a relatively easy Winnipeg Jets in round one. The Knights then went on to beat the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars to make their 2nd Stanley Cup final in six years.

Panthers vs. Golden Knights Playoff History

It’s been almost 17 years since the Florida Panthers were last in the Stanley Cup finals, and they have been around since 1993. Their opponents, the Vegas Golden Knights, have only been in the NHL since 2018 and have already been to the Stanley Cup once, with this year’s finals marking their second occasion.

In that time span, the Golden Knights have also made the Conference finals in 4 of their opening 6 seasons, while the Panthers have made the playoffs just 9 times in 30 years, failing to get past the first round in 6 of those 9.

The Golden Knights have a better playoff pedigree despite being 24 years younger than the Panthers, although we can’t count on history to predict the future.

These minor details are interesting to know and sometimes play a small role if these thoughts and ideas get drilled into players’ minds time after time. There’s a reason certain teams always make the finals.

Let The Battle Commence

Without a doubt, there is going to be a first-time Stanley Cup champion in 2023, and both these teams won’t want to give an inch throughout these finals. We fully expect this to be yet another tight series for both these teams. Don’t be surprised to see it go all the way to a Game 7.

Let’s remember neither teams’ respective starting goaltender started this year’s playoffs as the number one for their team, but due to one reason or another, both now find themselves as the starting goaltenders in the 2023 Stanley Cup finals and both are in red hot form.

This could come down to the battle of the goaltenders.

  • Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed 2.21 goals per game this post-season.
  • Vegas’ Adin Hill had allowed 2.07 goals per game this post-season.
  • Thus far during the playoffs, Vegas has been the slightly better team in front of net, scoring 48 goals compared to the Panthers’ 31. Vegas played 17 games while the Panthers played 16.
  • The Panthers have allowed 25 goals, while the Golden Knights allowed 23.
  • The Golden Knights recorded the best ATS units this season with +16.4 compared to the Panthers, who ended with the 28th worst ATS record but still managed to produce some small profit, having had +1.4 units.

Panthers to Snatch Cup

We say “snatch the cup” because that’s literally what they will be doing if they win this year’s Stanley Cups finals, albeit well deserved, it will have totally come from left field, having started the playoffs as the biggest ranked outsider.

It’s not that we don’t believe the Golden Knights can or will win the cup, but the current odds suggest the better pick right now is the Florida Panthers to lift the cup at +110 NHL betting odds.

The Panthers are just as hot as the Golden Knights right now. Yes, the Knights might have been a better regular season team, but this is not the regular season anymore and the Panthers have knocked out some stiff competition.

Looking at anything over +100 on the Panthers pre-game one of the series has to be a value bet in our opinion, as we believe this is a much more 50/50 matchup than most believe.


NHL Pick: Panthers Stanley Cup Winner (+110) at BetMGM


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