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BETTING

2024 Australian Open ATP Final Best Bets

Daniil Medvedev Russian tennis player
Russia's Daniil Medvedev returns to Italy's Jannik Sinner during their semi-final match at the ATP Finals tennis tournament in Turin on November 18, 2023. Tiziana Fabi / AFP

A new champion will be crowned when Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner take the court at Rod Laver Arena and we have our 2024 Australian Open ATP Final best bets.

Erstwhile champion Novak Djokovic has been eliminated by Jannik Sinner and now these two men battle for their chance to raise the trophy. Medvedev has already won one Grand Slam, Sinner will be playing in the first Grand Slam final of his career.

Who will be celebrating at the end of the match and who will be the winning tennis pick at the top U.S. betting sites?

Picks Summary

  • Over 38.5 Games (-120)
  • Daniil Medvedev Aces  Over 11.5 (-120)
  • Total Sets: Five (+240)

*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner

Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 03:30 AM ET at Rod Laver Arena


After Jannik Sinner’s shocking upset performance against Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev took the court. The match was a hard-fought, five-set battle that lasted 4 hours and 22 minutes. Medvedev prevailed in the end allowing him to make his third Australian Open final.

Medvedev faced Rafael Nadal in 2021, and then Djokovic in 2023 in his finals appearances. Will the enigmatic Russian win on his third attempt?

Jannik Sinner won in an impressive fashion over the world number one, Novak Djokovic. Because of this, bettors will be lining up to back Sinner and think that he will win this match quickly. However, the over in this match is the much sharper play. Daniil Medvedev can match Djokovic’s consistency and will be a tough opponent for Sinner.

Consistent

Despite the highlights and aggressive play of Daniil Medvedev, he has quietly become one of the most consistent players on tour. Medvedev will not beat himself, he will force Sinner to hit winners and take the match from him.

Both men come into this match serving well and the quick surface in Australia accentuates the powerful hitting. With more holds of serve, matches are much more likely to go over.

Although Jannik Sinner had success breaking Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev comes into this match more tested and more prepared to take on his young rival. Medvedev has beaten Sinner six times in his career, although Sinner has won their last three matchups. Medvedev will look to end this streak.

I can see this match going either way in the end, but the over 38.5 games is the best bet to play.

Daniil Medvedev Prop

This play is correlated with our over bet. In a three-set battle, it would be tough for Daniil Medvedev to get there. However, the longer this match goes, the more opportunities there will be for Aces.

Medvedev hit 14 aces in his 5-set win over Alexander Zverev in a semifinal. The Russian hit 16 aces in his 5-set win over Hubie Hurkacz. He also had 13 aces in his four-set win over Nuno Borges.

The last match in which he failed to hit at least 12 Aces was in his round of 16 win over Felix Auger Aliassime. With this match likely to go 4 sets, there’s no reason to think that Medvedev won’t reach his prodigious ace total once again.

Medvedev’s formidable serve will shine in this closely contested match. As well as the over, a great play to make for this match is Daniil Medvedev over 11.5 Aces.

Prop On Total Sets

I anticipate a tight match when these two players take the court. As well as taking advantage of the over, we can get a plus money payout by taking the match to go to 5 sets. Daniil Medvedev has gone to five sets in his last two outings and it would not be surprising to see these two once again play another tightly contested match.

Five of their nine matches have gone the distance of three sets. This will be the first time the two men have played in a five-set affair.

Buckle in for plenty of tennis tonight because this match is going to go all the way. It should weave an exciting story with peaks and valleys depending on who you’re backing. Both players will look brilliant and both players will succumb to frustration throughout it all. What we can be sure of is we will get a classic for the ages.

Taking the over is the safe route but it’s also nice to get a little extra value in taking this match to go all the way. These three bets are all correlated so a winner in one will most likely be a winner in all three.

Take advantage and end the 2024 Australian Open right by betting this match to be five sets.

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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