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BETTING

2024 Australian Open WTA Final Best Bets

Zheng Qinwen Celebrates Win vs Barbora Krejcikov
China's Qinwen Zheng celebrates after winning the women's singles final match against Czech Republic's Barbora Krejcikova at the WTA Zhengzhou Open tennis tournament. STR/AFP

Two of the hardest-hitting players in the world of women’s tennis take the court in the Australian Open 2024 Women’s final.

Now that the first Grand Slam of the year will be concluded, who will raise the trophy? Will it be a close match? How will these players fare under the bright lights and high pressure of this electric event?

Picks Summary

  • Qinwen Zheng/Aryna Sabalenka Over 20.5 Games (-120) at Bet365
  • Qinwen Zheng -1.5 Aces (-125)

*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng

Saturday, January 27, 2024 – 03:30 AM ET at Rod Laver Arena


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Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka has yet to lose a set so far here at the Australian Open. Aryna Sabalenka has been mowing down opponents and most recently beat the US Open champion, Coco Gauff, 7-6, 6-4 in the semifinal. Sabalenka has been electric throughout the tournament.

Until the semifinal, Aryna Sabalenka had yet to lose three more than three games in a set. Sabalenka won 3 sets 6-0 en route to the final today. Not only has Aryna Sabalenka been winning, she has been winning in an impressive fashion, blowing her opponents off the court and giving them no hope of victory.

Aryna Sabalenka is a powerful player who relies on hitting through her opponents, gaining offensive position, and then ending the point quickly. Aryna Sabalenka dictates the point and the match. As tennis commentators are fond of saying, the match is always on Aryna Sabalenka’s racket. If Sabalenka is precise, her opponent has no chance. If Sabalenka is inconsistent, her opponent can let Sabalenka beat herself.

Qinwen Zheng

This player came into this match in one of the least impressive routes to a Grand Slam Final in recent memory. The highest-ranked player that Qinwen Zheng beat was Anna Kalinskaya, who is ranked number 75 in the world. However, you can only beat who’s in front of you, and Qinwen Zheng has accomplished that task every time she’s taken the court.

Ways to Approach this Match

The total of this match is set at 20.5 games. That is fairly low for a Grand Slam final as usually the betting odds are not this disparate. Aryna Sabalenka is a heavy favorite to win this match at moneyline odds of -500 at Bet365 and she is expected to do so quickly and easily.

Oddsmakers have messed up here and lined this match way too generously in favor of Aryna Sabalenka. Zheng is a powerful player and although the list of opponents she defeated en route to the final is not that impressive, she has the power and speed to keep up with Sabalenka. Qinwen Zheng is a quicker player, meaning her court coverage is much better. However, even the quickest opponent has no chance to return shots as powerful as Sabalenka can produce.

Regardless, I expect this match to be much closer than the oddsmakers predict. An easy way to take advantage of this is to bet the Over 20.5 games.

If Qinwen Zheng can hold her serve, which isn’t that far-fetched as Sabalenka does not have a strong break percentage against top competition (it is great against weaker players though!), she will easily push this over the total of 20.5 games. A three-set match is quite likely if Zheng shows the same form she has all tournament. Even though Aryna Sabalenka has yet to lose a set, she has also yet to play a player who can hit as consistently powerful as Qinwen Zheng.

The first way to approach this match is by betting the over 20.5 games

Tennis Pick: Over 20.5 Games (-120) at Bet365

Qinwen Zheng -1.5 Aces

Although both players are big servers, Qinwen Zheng is quicker and less likely to get aced. Sabalenka will probably still get more service winners, but simply getting your racket on the ball prevents it from being scored an ace. Because of this technicality, Qinwen Zheng has an advantage in the Ace category.

Qinwen Zheng has a wide variety of serves and her ability to go wide outside on the deuce side will keep Aryna Sabalenka from playing too close to the middle. This should open up for her to go “down the t” on both sides of the ball. Qinwen Zheng’s ability to vary her serve placement will allow her to record more Aces than her opponent.

In a battle of two big servers, Qinwen Zheng has the advantage for the statistic of Ace. Our second best bet for the day is Qinwen Zheng -1.5 Aces.

Tennis Pick: Qinwen Zheng -1.5 Aces (-125) at Bet365

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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