​​The 2024 Australian Open is here. This marks an excellent opportunity for players to start their season right. This tournament will allow younger players to step into the spotlight and shine, as well as for established veterans to add to their resumes. Let’s look at the tennis odds to find the best picks to make in both men’s and women’s tournaments.
Picks Summary
- Holger Rune to Win Quarter (+380)
- Jelena Ostapenko to Win Quarter (+800)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
2024 Australian Open
January 14, 2024 – January 28, 2024
Holger Rune to Win His Quarter
Betting the tournament’s winner is fun, yet the top sportsbooks also offer the opportunity to bet who will win each quarter and become a grand slam semifinalist. This is a market we will look to attack as the pricing can be more variant and there is more value to be had. A perfect example of this is the value presented by Holger Rune to win his quarter at +380.
The up-and-coming Danish player had some setbacks due to injury in the 2023 season but was able to come back and finish on a strong note. Rune won his first Masters 1000 title at the Rolex Paris Masters. He defeated five consecutive top 10 opponents including the world’s best player, Novak Djokovic. Rune will look to improve on his impressive feat of accomplishments with a strong showing here at the Australian Open.
Main Rival
His main rival to win his quarter is a man he knows well, Daniil Medvedev. Yet let’s look at a player at a similar age and talent level, Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz and Rune have been playing against each other their whole lives as they are similar ages and have always been the top tennis prospects of their generation. Rune and Medvedev have developed a rivalry as well.
Alcaraz is the Grand Slam winner and remains the rightful favorite to win his quarter at -135 yet Rune is +375 in his quarter. The pricing is widely disparate from their actual gap in talent level. Rune is much closer to Alcaraz than these odds suggest. Alcaraz is the beneficiary of his breakthrough win at Wimbledon, as well as being a much more recognized name. However, the gap in talent and skill is very small. In reality, Rune should be +200 to win this quarter but because he lacks Alcaraz’s popularity, the price here is wrong.
Guidance
Holger Rune is under the guidance of former Wimbledon champion Boris Becker. Becker has helped many young players improve their game, most notably Alexander Zverev. With Rune under Becker’s tutelage, I expect him to be focused, aggressive, and more efficient in his wins. Winning quickly, efficiently, and ending matches will help in a potential quarterfinal matchup against Daniil Medvedev. An important part of the majors is to win quickly and not spend too much time on the court going into your major challenges.
Medvedev is the rightful favorite, yet the best bet to make in this quarter is for Holger Rune to win this quarter. Get ahead of the curve on the young Danish player’s rise to superstardom and bet Holger Rune to make his mark this tournament.
Jelena Ostapenko to Win Her Quarter
The former French Open champion comes into the Australian Open in excellent form. Jelena Ostapenko won the warm-up tournament in Adelaide with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Daria Kasatina in the Final. Ostapenko is off to a fine start this season at 7-1 on the year. When Ostapenko is in form, she can beat anyone, as evidenced by her previous runs at Grand Slams and Masters against high level opponents.
Jelena Ostapenko’s main competition in her quarter will be world number one player Iga Swiatek. However, Ostapenko is 4-0 against Swiatek including a win in the quarterfinals of the US Open last season. Swiatek struggles with Ostapenko’s power. Normally, Swiatek has the advantage of speed, quickness, and power. However, Ostapenko has the ability to keep Iga Swiatek deep in the court and keep Iga playing a defensive style.
Swiatek’s Nightmare
An in-form Jelena Ostapenko is a nightmare for Iga Swiatek and once again the odds are incorrect for Ostapenko to win her quarter. Our main concern is that Ostapenko flails and slips up in the earlier rounds, as she is prone to erratic play, especially against inferior opponents. But if Ostapenko can survive and make it into her match-up with Swiatek, she will pull the upset and continue her excellent start to the year. At this price, the best value on the women’s side is Jelena Ostapenko to win her quarter.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
