Considering only one double-digit seed survived the first and second rounds of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Tournament, and factoring in how chalk dominated over the weekend, perhaps the biggest potential surprise in the Sweet 16 would be if there are any surprises at all.
Favorites went 15-1 straight-up in the Round of 32, and 11-5 against the spread to put those bettors in the black while leaving Cinderella fans in the red at top-rated sportsbooks.
All four No. 1 seeds are still in the mix, the first time for the entire quartet to reach the Sweet 16 since 2019. The only time all four reached the Final Four was 2008, and another weekend like we just had could change that.
No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 2 Arizona Wildcats
Thursday, March 28, 2024 – 07:09 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
Believe it or not, No. 6 Clemson is the second-lowest seed remaining at the dance. For Brad Brownell and the Tigers to continue to the Elite Eight, they will first have to dispatch a tough Arizona squad before potentially meeting ACC rival North Carolina in the West Finals.
Can Hall Stay Out of Foul Trouble?
The Wildcats are showing up -7 on the early NCAAB odds, with some outlets selling -7½. Clemson covered both games as a small underdog last week, while Arizona went 1-0-1 ATS.
If the Tigers are going to pull off the outright upset, Brownell will need his full complement of players for the entire 40 minutes, and that means center PJ Hall must stay out of foul trouble and give Clemson more than 19 minutes.
That’s the amount of time Hall spent on the floor in each of Clemson’s wins over New Mexico and Baylor. If not for RJ Godfrey – a 59% shooter at the line – canning four late free throws, the Tigers might not have gotten past Baylor.
Wildcats 3rd in Country in Scoring
Against an Arizona team that is third in the country in scoring (87.6 ppg), Clemson will need both Hall’s scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounding (6.4 rpg). The 6-10 senior scored 25 points total and pulled down 6 rebounds in the wins last week due to spending so much time on the pine.
It’s a tall task, but Hall and the Tigers are perfectly capable of pulling off the surprise in L.A. on Thursday night to advance to the Elite Eight.
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 1 Connecticut Huskies
Thursday, March 28, 2024 – 07:39 PM ET at TD Garden
While this year’s Sweet 16 is lacking in Cinderellas, it somewhat makes up for that by giving us a rematch of last year’s National Championship Game, though it will take a lot more than revenge for San Diego State to surprise Connecticut this time around.
Aztecs Must Make 3s Count
With the game being played less than a 2-hour drive from the UConn campus, this will be a very pro-Husky crowd the Aztecs try to quiet in Boston.
There’s also the case of the Huskies having won their last eight NCAA tournament games by double-digits, so it’s not a coincidence that UConn is listed -11 on the board at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Revenge is a dish best served cold, or so they say, but San Diego State must be red-hot from 3-point land just to stay inside the number, much less pull off the outright upset and end UConn’s dreams of a second consecutive title.
No. 11 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles
Friday, March 29, 2024 – 07:09 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Anyone who watched North Carolina State slice through the ACC Tournament will find it tough to call any Wolfpack win in the NCAA a surprise. But they’re the only double-digit seed left, and perfectly capable of at least one more upset.
‘Pack Playing with House Money
The Wolfpack are going from being 6½-point favorites in the Round of 32 win over Oakland to 6½-point underdogs in this matchup with Marquette. With the contest taking place in Dallas, neither side has any geographical advantage.
Kevin Keatts had NC State on a major roll entering the NCAA Tournament after coming out of nowhere to win five games in five days to claim the ACC title and automatic invite. The Wolfpack wasn’t even on the NIT radar after dropping their final four regular season contests.
They brushed aside two other Sweet 16 teams already, Duke and North Carolina, during the ACC run, so they’re not going to be intimidated by Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles, especially not with the big man with the soft hands down low, DJ Burns Jr.
History & the Ghost of Jim Valvano
For those interested in some historical context, it was 50 years ago that NC State and Marquette met for the National Championship, and the Wolfpack enjoyed homecourt advantage in the win at Greensboro. They also had a small forward by the name of David Thompson.
There’s also the supernatural angle, that being a win over Marquette could set up a rematch of the 1983 NCAA Championship with Houston in the Elite Eight. A college basketball pick on Jim Valvano’s ghost making that happen is warranted.
