With All-Star weekend coming up, the top sportsbooks already made their move and released their odds for the NBA All-Star Game.
To predict who will be the MVP, we have to choose between 24 different options, ranging from Scottie Barnes at +10000 to Giannis at +500. One benefit of there being so many options to choose from is that the odds are so attractive. Because the payout potential is unique, this is a bet worth investing in.
Skeptics, however, might think that predicting the MVP is like a lottery selection. The best approach is to make predicting the MVP not feel like a lottery in the first place. So, before getting into the guys I like, I will talk about how we can rule out several different candidates.
It turns out that choosing the MVP is not too difficult, because there are really only a very limited number of appealing options. I will argue that two options clearly stand out the strongest: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant.
Picks Summary
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (+500)
- Kevin Durant (+1100)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
West All-Stars vs. East All-Stars
Sunday, February 18, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The MVP Will Likely Be A Forward
In all likelihood, the MVP for this year’s All-Star Game will be a forward, as six of the last seven All-Star MVP selections were forwards.
The one exception was Steph Curry, a shooting guard, two years ago. For this one exception to take place, it took the guard being a legend, a future Hall-of-Famer. In that game two years ago, his performance was exceptional: he made 16 threes.
Because Curry is playing in this year’s game, we’ll keep him in mind, for now, as a possible option, but we can also rule out a lot of options who aren’t special like Curry. Certainly, no other guard is likely to go off from long-range, such as by shooting 16 threes. Curry’s three-point shooting is unique.
Skeptics will say that Devin Booker and Luka Doncic are special guards and demand further consideration, so we can still keep these two guards in the back of our minds. But certainly the likes of Trae Young, Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton and several other guards are out of the picture for us.
The MVP Will Play For A High-Caliber Team
Another criterion of a likely All-Star MVP is that he will play for one of the NBA’s top teams.
Jayson Tatum, last year’s MVP, played for a Boston team that finished second in the East. Steph Curry, the MVP two years ago, played for Golden State, who finished third in the West. Giannis was MVP three years ago when his Bucks finished third in the East. Kawhi Leonard was MVP four years ago, playing for a Clippers team that finished second in the West.
This trend indeed rules out Steph, whose Warriors are mediocre right now. They sit one game above .500. Like last year, this year they seem to be removed from the high-caliber status that characterized them years ago.
The MVP Will Be In Strong Form Now
All-Star Game MVPs tend to be players whose strong regular season form carries over into the All-Star Game.
When Giannis, for example, won All-Star MVP, he had collected a streak of seven straight games in which he exceeded 25 points. Steph’s form was similarly strong two years ago.
Last year, Tatum achieved a 38-point performance in his last regular season game before the All-Star Game.
The MVP Will Value All-Star Games
The All-Star Game MVP will be someone who cares enough about the event to want to do well in it.
This rules out Luka, who in four All-Star Game appearances has never scored more than eight points. One can only assume that a superstar like Luka just doesn’t care to invest more effort.
LeBron, who has largely cooled off in recent All-Star Game renditions, is also ruled out.
My Two Favorite Candidates – Betting Strategy: Splitting a Unit
I like two players, of course they are both forwards, to win MVP.
In betting on two players, we further circumvent the difficulty created by the large number of candidates. We make it likelier to win the bet.
The worry that people have is that they will risk losing more money by investing in multiple players. In response to this worry, we will stick to wagering our normal unit, but we will split this unit: I recommend investing one-half unit in Giannis and the other half-unit in Durant.
While the payout would not be so good, the fact that we are likelier to win a bet at such attractive betting odds makes the payout reduction worthwhile. We will still have a nice payout because of the attractive odds. So let’s not get too greedy.
Kevin Durant
KD has everything we want in an All-Star MVP selection. Durant is an elite forward, one of those mega-talented players who is of a caliber similarly special to the caliber of other players who have repeated as All-Star MVPs.
Indeed, he has already won two All-Star Game MVPs, in addition to collecting several other accolades in his incredible career.
He values playing in this game, as he repeatedly scores over 20 or over 30 points in the All-Star Game. Durant, having scored 28, 31, and 24 points in his last three regular season games, respectively, enters this game in strong form.
He plays for a high-caliber Suns team that, it is true, only ranks sixth in the West. But their record at 31-22 indicates that their lower conference ranking is primarily a consequence of the competitiveness of their conference.
Once 14-15, they are ascending steadily, and they do look like one of those top-caliber teams that, by the end of the season, could finish top-three in their conference.
NBA Pick: Kevin Durant (+1100) at Bet365
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis is, like KD, someone special enough to win multiple All-Star Game MVP selections. Among other special accolades, he has been named MVP in back-to-back regular seasons.
He enters this All-Star Game in strong form, having scored over 30 points in four of his last six regular season games. He scored 36 points in his last regular season game.
Moreover, he plays for a Bucks team that ranks third in the East.
Like Durant, he values playing in the All-Star Game. Before last year’s game when he was injured and played one possession, he had scored 30 or more points in two straight All-Star Games.
NBA Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+500) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
