The NFC Championship Game features a couple of top-scoring offenses in the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. Deebo Samuel’s injury situation is something to monitor, but we feel good about the chances of Brandon Aiyuk bouncing back and Amon-Ra St. Brown adding to his huge postseason run for Detroit as these teams battle for a spot in the Super Bowl.
Be sure to check out the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the top sportsbooks to make these bets for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game.
Picks Summary
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Brandon Aiyuk (SF) Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
- George Kittle (SF) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at Bet365
- Jared Goff (DET) Over 258.5 Passing Yards (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions)
When these teams last met in Week 1 of the 2021 season, few people knew who Amon-Ra St. Brown was for the Lions. The 4th-round rookie caught 2 passes for 23 yards that day, but by Week 13, he started routinely getting double-digit targets and finished on a very productive note.
He carried that over to 2022 when he was a Pro Bowl receiver with 106 catches and 1,161 yards. He moved up to All-Pro status this season with 1,515 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns.
St. Brown is a great receiver who commands the ball at all levels of the field, and he has been incredibly consistent. He’s had at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 9 straight home games, tying an NFL record set by Marvin Harrison and Travis Kelce. St. Brown had 8 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown last week against the Buccaneers.
But St. Brown is not at home this week. He will have to deliver on the road, but the good news is the weather should be around 70 degrees and not have the rain that plagued last week’s San Francisco game a bit.
St. Brown had a season-high 156 yards in his last California trip to face the Chargers. He also had 124 yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay earlier this year.
The Pick
The 49ers are an elite defense, but the secondary is the lone unit that is lacking a bit in the talent department. They have good players but not any truly great players who can lock down a top receiver like St. Brown. The Lions also find very creative ways to get him the ball every week.
The Lions are going to have to throw to keep up. St. Brown already has 12 games with 90 receiving yards this year. Look for him to approach it again, if not the century mark as he does whatever he can to get the Lions to their first Super Bowl.
NFL Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers)
If you told me Deebo Samuel would get injured on the opening drive against Green Bay, and Brandon Aiyuk would finish with 32 yards, a season-low for him in a game with Brock Purdy as his quarterback, I’d never have believed it.
But that happened last week. Aiyuk only had 6 targets as Jauan Jennings even had more production with 5 catches for 61 yards. Aiyuk even had to go low to scoop his best catch from the ground to save a drive on a 3rd down.
It was not Purdy’s best game for accuracy. Did the rain affect that? Most likely. But Aiyuk will have to step up and the reason to trust him to do so is this Detroit defense that has been getting crushed by wide receivers and quarterbacks for over a month.
The last 5 passers to face Detroit have all thrown for over 340 yards, an NFL record. The Lions are weak in the secondary, and Aiyuk is still the best route runner and leading receiver on this team. He should bounce back in a big way.
The Pick
If Deebo Samuel doesn’t play, this should be an easier pick to make as Aiyuk should be the one to make up his production this time. It is easier to prepare these things with a week of practice instead of doing it on the fly when a player gets injured during the game like Samuel did last week.
We’ll trust Aiyuk for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers)
You never know if the 49ers are going to feature George Kittle as a blocker or receiver, but a home game against a tough run defense feels like a good bet he’ll be a receiving stud this week.
Check out Kittle’s home-road splits this year:
- Home: 7 games, 86.6 yards per game, 5 TD
- Road: 9 games, 46.0 yards per game, 1 TD
That does not include last week’s playoff game against Green Bay where Kittle had 4 catches for 81 yards and another touchdown.
The Pick
The Lions allowed 6 touchdown passes to tight ends this season and another to Cade Otton of the Buccaneers last week. You could play his over in yards if you are concerned about his scoring chances (or if Deebo plays), but he has a good connection with Purdy and they should do big things at home this week against this struggling pass defense.
NFL Pick: George Kittle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at Bet365
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
Ever since an ugly loss in Chicago, Jared Goff has looked very good since Week 15. He finished the last 4 games of the regular season by averaging 281.5 passing yards per game. He has thrown for 277 and 287 yards in the playoff wins at home against the Rams and Buccaneers.
He gets a tougher defensive matchup this week, and he is on the road where he has consistently been less productive with the Lions. But San Francisco is not Chicago in December. It figures to be nice weather and there should not be rain the way there was during the Packers-49ers game last week.
Goff used to play annually at Levi’s Stadium when he was with the Rams and that NFC West rivalry met twice a year. In Week 16 of the 2019 season, which was one of the best San Francisco defenses, he passed for 323 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 34-31 loss. He was a 7-point underdog that day just like he will be Sunday, and he made the 49ers sweat that one out as they needed a game-winning field goal with no time left.
Goff is playing as well as he ever has right now, and he is used to having to compensate for a poor defense. With 2 elite run defenses, this game should be about the passing offense for each team.
The Pick
If Joshua Dobbs (265 yards) and Drew Lock (269 yards) can throw for this many yards in San Francisco this season, why not Goff with a strong cast of receivers, a good offensive coordinator, an aggressive coach, and likely a need to score a lot of points to win this game? We’ll take his over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Jared Goff Over 258.5 Passing Yards (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
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