Thursday features a great slate of Olympics action in which it is worth investing at the top sportsbooks.
In particular, I am interested in the basketball games between Germany and France and Serbia vs. USA and in the bronze medal soccer match between Egypt and Morocco.
Basketball Picks
- Germany -4.5 (-110)
- USA -16.5 (-110)
Soccer Pick
- Egypt ML (+375)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Germany vs. France (Basketball)
Thursday, August 08, 2024 – 11:30 AM ET at Bercy Arena
Group Play History
Germany vs. France is a great game for bettors to consider because of the available data sample that exists because both teams played in the same group.
In Group B, Germany beat Brazil by 13 and Japan by 20. Also in Group B, France beat Brazil by 12 and Japan by four.
We see that Germany performed better than France did against mutual opponents, with the Germans’ superior success against France standing out the most.
Crucially, Germany and France also played each other. In that game, the Germans easily covered the spread. They beat France 85-71.
Why This Result Matters
I am afraid that bettors are going to be tempted to invest in France because they will remember the last game that France played most strongly.
This is a dangerous phenomenon called recency bias where people tend to weigh the most recent events more strongly than less recent events. This phenomenon is dangerous because chronology does not determine significance.
France’s last game does look impressive on paper, but my point is that France’s last game – its win over Canada – is not nearly as significant as their loss to Germany.
Germany’s 14-point win against France is significant because it shows that Germany lacks the matchup disadvantages that France was able to find and exploit in Canada.
Germany’s Depth
The Canadians are a guard-centered group that are relatively weak in the interior. But the Germans are deep throughout their whole roster, and they are strong inside, where they even manhandled the Americans last year in that famous FIBA World Cup victory that the Germans accomplished with a score of 113-111.
Inside, the Germans boast center Moritz Wagner, an NBA player whose advanced metrics in these Olympics show him to be a very tough defender.
Daniel Theis is also an NBA player who is too strong and physical to be bullied inside like the Canadians were by France.
The Germans boast more talent inside, and their inside ability is complemented by strong guard play led by Dennis Schroder, who is also an NBA player.
Basketball Pick: Germany -4.5 (-110) at Bet365
Serbia vs. USA (Basketball)
Thursday, August 08, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Bercy Arena
Matchup History
If we want to know how Thursday’s game will go, then we only need to look to the past.
These teams played in the same group, which the Americans won by going undefeated: Team USA beat Serbia 110-84.
This triumph was not an exceptional occurrence, either. In exhibition play, the Americans beat Serbia 105-79.
America’s Superior Guard Play
Whereas the Serbs have Bogdan Bogdanovic and nobody else remotely nameworthy, Team USA has the finest guards in the world.
Steph Curry, for example, is perhaps the best three-point shooter of all time. Curry was effective as a scorer in both games against Serbia. But he didn’t score that many points because there are too many other Americans who want a piece of the action.
Devin Booker and Anthony Edwards are two other recognized stars who easily outclass the likes of Bogdanovic, as evident in the six All-Star selections of Booker and Edwards combined versus the Serb’s zero All-Star selections.
America’s Play Inside
The Americans also brought with them the NBA’s best rim protectors. Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid are two centers who annually finish NBA seasons as Defensive Player of the Year candidates. Each of them will help contain Serbia’s one significant threat, Nikola Jokic.
On offense, both players can also wear down Jokic by making him defend either guy who scores 20 or 30 points per game in the NBA.
If Embiid can’t play – he is listed as a game-time decision – then Davis will be able to focus on defending Jokic, whose field goal percentage he has had success limiting in the NBA.
While Davis would expend his energy on defense, other forwards like the in-form Kevin Durant would step up to complement Team USA’s guard advantage.
The Americans simply have too many advantages, and their history against Serbia, where they have also not needed Embiid, suggests that those advantages are too numerous and extensive for a mere 16.5-point spread to bother them.
Basketball Pick: USA -16.5 (-110) at Bet365
Egypt U23 vs. Morocco U23 (Soccer)
Thursday, August 08, 2024 – 11:00 AM ET at La Beaujoire-Louis-Fonteneau
Egypt Has Shown More
Egypt is worth investing in, especially as the Egyptians are priced as the underdog because it has shown more than the Moroccans.
Whereas Morocco lost to Spain, the Egyptians beat Spain and went into extra time against a superior France side.
Egypt has not shown the extent of defensive vulnerability that Morocco has, especially in Morocco’s terrible loss to an undermanned Ukraine side.
The Egyptians also have reliable offensive play, evident in its consecutive streak of four games with at least one goal. Their offense is good enough for the best defenses – they have, for example, scored the only goal that France has conceded in this Olympic competition.
I see, in sum, the oddsmakers underrating Egypt here.
Soccer Pick: Egypt ML (+375) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
